Six points guaranteed survival. Three or four may be enough. Any two of us, Derby and Wednesday could join Wycombe, who are technically not finished yet if they can win 10-0 or similar.
Whatever we do at Luton, we need Wednesday to turn up at Derby. Bizarrely, we might be best off not winning at Luton. Win at Luton and Wednesday will struggle to overhaul us because of goal difference and could lose interest, making Derby's job easier.
We have struggled recently. Quite why we should now suddenly find form in two away games at the death I'm not sure, but it is tantalisingly poised.
Personally I think the script has been written for one G Hirst to score his one and only goal of the season in added time at Cardiff as a late desperate substitute to send Wednesday down despite them winning at Derby. All four clubs finish level on points, and we stay up on goal difference. That has to happen, right?
You've convinced me Smiler. I'm having some difficulty with the Hirst scenario, but put a monkey in a room etc........! Wouldn't it just be wonderful?!
I'm still pessimistic about us getting the win we need BUT it could happen..
I can't help thinking about the Refs in the games where Crooks was wrongly red carded and the goal given at Barnsley... we could already be safe if it wasn't for those refs (and of course our many many missed chances)..
Gunna need some beer before Tuesdays game just to keep my nerves in order...
If we win on Tuesday Wednesday are down. We would then have to get the same or a better result on Saturday than Derby. That gives us a chance but our form looks so poor that i just fear the worst. I can see Wednesday beating Derby , us losing at Luton and not able to win at Cardiff. Ever the pessimist, or is it the realist. Still a great effort to be going into the last game with a chance imo.
I follow your argument about not winning at Luton, Smiler, but on the other hand, if we do win, Wednesday will know they're down, and the pressure will come off. They might then play with freedom that will allow them to beat Derby who will be feeling the heat. Either way, I feel we need that win at Luton, if only to boost the energy levels against Cardiff. We simply need to go for the jugular this week, and hope that luck is with us. It's going to be a long nerve shredding week(end).
Dont get me wrong, we have to try and win at Luton. A point is neither use nor ornament, so we can give it a right good go. It's amazing really that we are still in with a realistic chance. The nightmare scenario is that it is Wednesday who survive. The refereeing decisions, the missed Wiles chance at Huddersfield, the missed chances at Barnsley, the late own goals etc. Just three extra points and we would be able to take care of business at Luton. I guess every team has their 'what if' stories. We seem to have .ore than our fair share.
Allegedly, Chansiri has not paid the players' wages for March or April. Not the best incentive to take into a crunch survival fixture against Derby! Best he pays them and offers them a significant bonus if they beat Derby but just fall short of catching Rotherham!!!
I didn't see the game on saturday just the highlights, looks like we were lucky to get a point but it keeps it alive. We now have to do something we have only done once in the last 10 games and that is win a football match, we can wrap it up in fancy dressing all you want but we are in an awful run of form equivalent to nearly a quarter of the season, failing to get points against teams that were around us. We have only scored 5 goals in those games and that run of form leaves us with as much chance of finishing bottom (with less points than the last time we were in this league) as staying up, it takes someone with the faith of a christian facing the lions or wearing very very rose tinted glasses to see us getting the points we need. How Wednesday are allowed to be playing football when the chairman isn't paying the players is beyond me, but it shows the levels of corruption that run through the game. Let us hope, pray a to whatever god you want for some luck and to win at Luton.
Regarding the manager the situation we are in shows he isn't that good at this level, for me both Wycombe and Wednesday have much better managers, for them to still be in with any sort of chance is amazing, Warne staying next season is clearly a financial reason and you can't blame the Chairman really, he has but his money into the club, would we have done that?
I get the feeling there are still a few twists and turns left and I genuinely hope we pull it off.
it takes someone with the faith of a christian facing the lions or wearing very very rose tinted glasses to see us getting the points we need.
Regarding the manager the situation we are in shows he isn't that good at this level, for me both Wycombe and Wednesday have much better managers, for them to still be in with any sort of chance is amazing, Warne staying next season is clearly a financial reason and you can't blame the Chairman really, he has but his money into the club, would we have done that?
Disagree on a couple of fronts here Derby. I have neither of the faith nor the optical accoutrements that you assign to optimists. Rather, I have seen Rotherham play some superb football this season and my faith is based on the hope that we can replicate that standard for the last two games. With Crooks returning, fresh and fit, all the players will be aware that we need one final push and I'm sure they'll do their utmost to ensure Championship survival.
Regarding Warne, it's frankly ludicrous to suggest Wednesday have a better manager than us. They have achieved 3 net points more than us this season with players who are totally out of our price range. He and his many predecessors have failed miserably to turn massive (illegal) investment into success. With those resources at his disposal, I doubt PW would have performed so poorly. I'll concede that Wycombe have a good manager and, like PW, he has made a decent fist of Championship life on a woefully inadequate budget. The difference between PW and GA is that PW has so far amassed the same amount of points with one less game played. Hardly justification for classifying him as a much better manager?
It obviously stinks that Wednesday (and Derby and several others for that matter) can massively overspend their way through this season and send players out onto the pitch who by any sensible measure they can't afford. If there are penalties applied they will be applied next season, which won't help us if we are in League One and we were the real victims of the shenanigans. The EFL need to employ closer, rolling scrutiny of football clubs to make sure they are living closer to within their means. At the moment clubs are just flouting and in some cases just disregarding the rules and worrying about it later. That creates unfair competition as well as risking the viability and long term future of the clubs concerned. The lack of real oversight and immediate sanction is scandalous.
I respectfully disagree with Derby's view that the retention of Warne is 'clearly a financial reason'. Of course we have a limit to what we can pay a manager, but I think Warne is a good manager and a great fit for us, and has done and is doing a good job. We have the second lowest budget in the league - a fraction of what most have - and were firm second favourites to go down. Come what may we are now going to be in there with a fighting chance on the final day which at least to me, Whiston, Glenn and I suspect many others represents a good effort regardless of the outcome. If we stay up it will have been an amazing achievement. If we go down, we will have someone at the helm who has a 100% record of getting promotion from League One.
All good points made and perhaps my assessment of Warne is harsh, I do want to stress that I want us to win every game and I would really love to stay up and put Wednesday and derby down, we have had a very good chance in doing that, but in my view the limitations of Warne and his management team have been shown and they have failed to take that excellent opportunity......so far. If we had taken half the points that Wycombe have done in the last 6 games we would be going into the last two games in a much stronger position and the favourites to stay up, my argument against Warne is that when the pressure is really on and he has to deliver at this level he has failed. This has been shown in key games against teams around us at the time the game was played. For now I am assuming that we continue with the same form of the last 10 games, which lets be honest is the most likely scenario. If we finish in that way we are likely to be bottom or second to bottom with less points than last time, that is not progress by any sense of the imagination, I think the board have backed Warne to the best that they can and let us be clear that two of our most naturally skillful players (both Warne signings) can't get a start at the moment. Yes we have a low budget and that is a huge factor, but we won't have the biggest budget next year if we are in league 1, will that be our excuse again. Warne staying is an easy choice for the board, it is financially better for them and they know that he and his management team have the club at their heart, these are valid reasons, they are conservative and safe reasons. We will see won't we, I live in Derby all my neighbours are Derby fans I want us to stay up a lot.
Derby - I trust you'll be flying your Rotherham flag from your bedroom window and praying that Jozefzoon bags the winner at Cardiff to send down his parent club!
One last point on your assessment above - the ravages of the Covid crisis and the intense schedule that our squad has been subjected to cannot be underestimated. A key sign is Smith - he normally runs himself ragged every game and, despite his inconsistency in front of goal, can always be depended upon to chase every cause in the opposition half. For the last 3 or so games, he has looked absolutely knackered and I imagine most of the squad are feeling the pace. The effect on our performances can be nothing else but negative.
For tonight and Saturday, we need to hope our players can extract every ounce of energy from their bodies knowing that there will be a wonderful reward and a long rest at 3 o'clock ish on Saturday.
I don't want to heap pressure on him Glenn, but that is why I am looking to Crooks to put in a big performance tonight. He is relatively fresh and will be keen to make amends for his red card (not that he did anything wrong). He is capable of it being a match winner in big games and has done it before. Cometh the hour, as they say. That is also why I would like to see Barlaser play. When he plays well he adds some quality, and he has been relatively lightly used.
I don't think there is any doubt that the run of so many games in such a short space of time has been brutal and has really hurt us, but we have two key players there who should be raring to go.
I don't think Derby thought for one moment they would be in a relegation battle or surely they wouldn't have loaned a player to a club that was always likely to be. Not that Jozefzoon has done a great deal for us (the alternative view of course is that they knew they were selling us a pup!). I don't like players being loaned to clubs in the same division and this is why. If, as is typically the case, we are paying a proportion only of his wages he is in a horribly conflicted situation where two clubs paying his wages are each trying to send the other down. Does he bust a gut for a club he is leaving next week or for the parent club he is returning to? He can't really win, and It can't be right.
Share your view on Jozefzoon,smiler. He did look a threat on Saturday and has far more natural skill than the now one dimensional Ogbene. Will Warne have got far enough into his head to risk playing him at Luton ? I am expecting Derby to beat Wednesday so it has to be 2 wins for us.
well being they hit the post twice and we did once I suppose the luck is just on our side. Why are we so scared of shooting wiles when he went in the box it was head down low and hard, but he went for a lay off that we lost, and Smith has to hit the target with a free header from 8 yards. We are playing ok and we are still alive
