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Millers Banter: Unofficial Rotherham United Fans Forum / Message Board → Football / Sport / RUFC Related → How Are We Going To Survive?
 

Topic: How Are We Going To Survive?

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Calypso
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RE: How Are We Going To Survive?
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Good post as usual smiler. There seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy about points (b) and (c) though, insomuch as, we don't spend and strengthen to a reasonable level in the summer. By January we are where we are as now and, as you rightly say, no one of any calibre is likely to be enticed to us; the outcome is predictable. So, what to do? Throw money at it early on and take a risk? Get a few journeymen in and hope for the best? Glad I don't have that problem. Either way, this season is almost a carbon copy of the last time we were here, which is very frustrating particularly when the likes of Luton appear to be giving it a good go and last year escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth and Barnsley shouldn't even be here by rights. Not to mention the mid week boys. Still, we can't rely on serendipity; we are the masters of our own destiny.

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smiler
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No doubt Barnsley got lucky last season Calypso, and something similar might happen to us. You dont want what happened at Wigan to happen to others, but there must be a fair chance that some of the overspending at these bigger clubs will catch up with them. When we have stayed up in this league before we have been fortunate to have one basket case in the division meaning we only really had two others to finish above. Of course Barnsley were luckier than that, because Wigan was not your normal administration and it came at the last minute. Fair play to Barnsley though, they have built on their lucky escape. Obviously we cant just bank on that. And I agree, there is a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy about it. I think that is the case. The one option I cant believe anyone likes is gambling the financial stability and very future of the club on a couple of big permanent signings which would mean potentially going into the division below with a huge wage bill. Which way we jump is very tricky and I guess depends on who might be available, but it looks like we are making room to get a couple in which is good. If it is to be loan players, they need to have a much bigger impact than the three we got in the Summer, none of whom have really added very much over and above what we already had.

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whiston01
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Two very good posts from Smiler and as usual an interesting one from 'Derby'

My cards have been firmly on the table from the off and i am not changing my mind now. I believe it will be very difficult for us to stay up. 'Derby says' To draw level with the team above we have to get 25% of the points we already have got and we need a miracle to stay up'.Statistics don't tell the whole truth. What about this one. In the last two games we have achieved 20% of our total points. Which one will be repeated in the next 20+ games ? . One ray of hope for us i believe is that we have several key players coming back to fitness. I agree with Smiler that teams like Q.P.R, Birmingham and Coventry will be in the relegation battle with those below them now.

I would like us to get a money signing but i can see what Smiler has said about the position we are in both in the league and in financial terms.

Finally i will comment on 'Derbys' statement which says ' The lockdowns and restrictions won't stop and anyone that does any sort of real research will know why'. Please tell me where this real research is as i would like to widen my knowledge. One thing i do believe is this. The nature of the society we live in (a capitalist one) will look to jam today as it always has and will. They will ignore the poor third world countries and roll out the vaccines to richer countries who will pay the going price. This will mean the virus mutating in the world and still being able to spread around. I also know that statistics in November showed over 200 frontline health and care workers have died with covid 19. What a terrible stat that is. Add to this the latest figures that show nearly 100k have died with covid since March. These are shocking figures and ones that needn't have been so high. New Zealand have showed the way where if you put peoples health and needs before a very tiny minority's greed then things can be so different.



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gwru
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GM are you going to pull other posters up? Nobody is answering the O/P. Back to football Middlesbrough play this afternoon so in theory we should be the fresher of the 2 sides when we play there Wednesday. But are we good enough to take advantage of that? We aren't far off but if we wait till last day of this transfer window be another 2 games gone not bringing anyone in. We are approaching this like a golf tournament. We are just getting to the turn for home with a few holes in hand but not looking like we can reach our objective. UTM

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C
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The issue we have is we never put back to back wins together.

Derby a prime example of this, beaten by us but then stuck two wins in a row together and gave themselves breathing space in less than a week.

Chris Hughton the forest manager also said similar in a recent post game interview on the importance of this. The fact that we haven’t done this since Steve Evans was the manager ( I think, could be wrong) tells you all you need to know why we continually struggle at this level.

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whiston01
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Warnock put back to back wins together in the championship was the last time. You are correct though 'c' we need to do it.

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realmiller
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Steve Evans only managed back to back Championship wins once, and they were the very last two games before he left.

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smiler
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I think the o/p has been addressed Gwru. Derby thinks we might already be too far adrift and suspects that we might already be preparing for League One. Whiston has always said he thinks it will be a struggle but he sees others above us being dragged into it so gives us a punchers chance. I think the odds are against us but think that with a couple of additions (probably loans) and maybe a bit of help from one or two collapsing we are in with a shout.

Instead of just repeating what you want to happen why don't you factor in the realities of the situation, give it some thought and give us the benefit of your wisdom as to how we might actually achieve it? That would make a much more interesting read than just seeing for the hundredth time 'get a left back and striker in young enough, good enough and ready to go, and do it now'. How do we actually attract those players without gambling on the financial future of the club? Or should we take that gamble? I look forward to seeing what you think.



-- Edited by smiler on Sunday 24th of January 2021 10:59:36 AM

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gwru
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smiler getting right players, right age I'd look at it as an investment then as I've said there's more chance of a profitable return. We've got to show some intent fans want more than every 2 years starting again in league 1.

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Top Cat
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Best not mention the three games in hand.

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smiler
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gwru wrote:

smiler getting right players, right age I'd look at it as an investment then as I've said there's more chance of a profitable return. We've got to show some intent fans want more than every 2 years starting again in league 1.

 You talk about investment Gwru. 

Firstly I would say that by bringing in relatively young players like Ogbene, Lindsay, Crooks, Barlaser and Olosunde, albeit for modest fees in some cases, and trying to develop them as players we have made a statement of intent.  They are all probably worth more now than we paid for them and I think they have all improved with us.  So that has already happened and the club has made it clear that this is a policy we intend to follow.  

Secondly, you and many other fans want to see us staying up.  Investing in players for the long run doesn't always fit neatly with meeting short term goals.  You will scream 'Warne Out' if we go down and are already screaming that we need players ready to come in.  You have said you want them not only young but ready to play and ready to make a difference now. 

You haven't really said how we attract those players.  Even if we can attract them in the first place, do we overspend in the hope that we stay up, with the rewards to come next season if that happens, but with the risk of financial problems if we don't?  Or do we stick to our budget and wage structure, which will undoubtedly limit the pool of players within our reach?

 



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gwru
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smiler club can't win only if we stay up this season. It's frustrating cause we aren't far off a staying up side. Goalkeeper I'm not sure of. I'd be tempted to send Blackman back & give Vickers his chance. Left full/wing back we definitely need. If we just got that one signing & Kayode back would do me.

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smiler
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I've got a feeling (doing the best I can to understand what you've said) that you still haven't addressed the point and have just reverted to saying what you want rather than giving an opinion on how we get it. You dont have to be a genius to say 'get some better players in'. There is a bit more to it than that though. I'll leave it there.

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C
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realmiller wrote:

Steve Evans only managed back to back Championship wins once, and they were the very last two games before he left.

 True. The point was more the importance of stringing a couple of wins together regardless of who is or was the manager.

it’s something we need to do if we want to stop up.

 



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realmiller
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C wrote:
True. The point was more the importance of stringing a couple of wins together regardless of who is or was the manager.

it’s something we need to do if we want to stop up.

 

 

Yes I understood that and I totally agree. I was just pointing out that apart from under Warnock, we've found it difficult to win two in a row in the Championship regardless of who is or was the manager. It's not a new problem, but one that needs to change and hopefully soon.



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Exetermiller
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Whenever we get in this league we'll always suffer under the same constraints unless our footprint becomes at least 50% bigger. That means everything, resources, income streams, fanbase, average attendance ....

We have doubled to what we were in L2 and the Don Valley days, and Byfield and co. were knocking 6 past Millwall. Can you imagine that season (up to Xmas), being top 6 in the Champ in a packed out brand new New York?... I think the legacy of that would have go us to the levels of sustainability we need?

Football is a different world now though. The gaps between divisions is too large right through the pyramid, and lets not get started on parachute payments making the Champ the most skewed unfair level playing field division in the world.

Our only exit strategy out the zebedee situation we're in is incremental increases to that whole footprint above, on or off the field...that will probably take decades.

From an improvement point of view I don't think for the most part we can argue that we haven't got much much better at keeping the ball / drawing fouls and we control much larger percentages of games than any time I've seen us in this league. That work is down to the coaches. We create chances, but unfortunately we need to create twice as many as the opposition due to the difference in individual technical ability.

I think we're in with a shout as long as we still do the right things as we did against Stoke in goal scoring areas, gambling, getting in front of man, splitting defenders, the right shot selection. Our work rate is fantastic and the press from the front is as good as any in this league, what we don't do enough is make teams pay...and it seems any slight error we make is punished (again down to the technical gap?).

Ogbene, once he and Oly start clicking down that right will give teams nightmares

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smiler
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I think our path to survival has become a bit clearer after the tremendous win at Middlesbrough.

More reasons for hope.

We have struggled for any away wins in the Championship in previous attempts. We now have three in half a season. Not earth shatteringly good, but a significant improvement and evidence of our increased competitiveness.

Our goal difference is better than most of our rivals. We have not been on the receiving end of thumpings as has happened before. Luton have the same goal difference as us, and they sit in mid-table.

We have started to create more goalscoring opportunities in open play and convert a few of them. You have to look up to the team in 14th place (Cardiff) to find one with more goals scored than us.

We have some key players coming back from injury at just the right time.

We still have six of the bottom seven (excluding ourselves) to play at home. Quite a few above us have been pulled into the mix by our recent form and also that of Derby. Forest, QPR and Birmingham are well involved, and Millwall are looking nervously over their shoulder.

We still have a lot to do and it is still a big challenge, but there are definitely reasons to be optimistic.

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GlennMiller
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GlennMiller wrote:

 I'm going to stick my neck out and expect Birmingham and Coventry to fill the last two relegation places.

 Should have put my money where my mouth was. However, I reckon Huddersfield are probably the team with most to worry about at the moment and Coventry will probably fancy finishing above them!



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ian
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It will be close. I just posted on other thread that my predictive championship effort has us on 49 points and safe.

As Glen predicted I had cov and Birmingham below us. I didn't overhink my predictions. I'd love to hear a real professor of stats go over the remaining fixtures and product an outcome. I am fairly sure that 49 points will be safe with a point or 2 error.



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GlennMiller
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All our relegation rivals, apart from Wycombe, lost their midweek games. If we can find a way of keeping in touch with the bottom 6, we're in with a chance of survival. Key to this will be getting something out of our next two games - 3 points from either the Reading, or preferably the Wednesday game would be a good start. If I were PW, I'd be targeting the Owls game and resting some of our key players against Reading. How about starting with Giles, Sadlier, SMacD, Hirst, Lapado, Jozefzoon? If there's a chance of getting anything from the game after an hour, bring on the big guns, otherwise keep them fresh for Wednesday.

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