whiston01 no problems. Enjoy the Cheltenham festival. I will but will be different. No Cheltenham roar unless they have sound effects! No pubs open. I lv 1st day supreme novice hrd Arkle Champion hrd, best days racing of the year for me.
Just one last comment( i know i said it was my last). You say a horse doesn,t know about trends. Of course that is correct.A horse doesn't know which race to enter in either. So it is left to the trainer. He will use trends/ stats, form etc. Why ? Because he will be building a profile of which horse will be the best fit for any race. Very few winners will not fit the profile of a previous winner at the Cheltenham festival. The difficult part is finding which are the most relevant stats, form etc. It is a bit like Warnes job at RUFC. The reason he doesn't have Kayode and Cooper in his first team squad is because they haven't yet reached the level to play in the championship. He is letting them learn their trade in lower league football. To step them up too soon is not the correct thing to do. a bit like those 125 horses who hadn't won a grade 1 and were found out in the Gold Cup. Stay safe.
The 12.30 Conditional Jockeys handicap hurdle at Carlisle can mean only one thing. It is Kevin Brogan time. Apple Rock ridden by Kevin Brogan against jockeys who are claiming anything from 3lb -10lb and a couple of chalk jockeys in R.Patrick and N.Moscrop who are not claiming. Result . 1st Apple Rock ridden by K. Brogan 6/1 into 4/1. If you had backed every horse ridden by Brogan in conditional jockey races you would be over 50 points up this season. Those stats are rubbish Gwru. Lol.
Just one last comment( i know i said it was my last). You say a horse doesn,t know about trends. Of course that is correct.A horse doesn't know which race to enter in either. So it is left to the trainer. He will use trends/ stats, form etc. Why ? Because he will be building a profile of which horse will be the best fit for any race. Very few winners will not fit the profile of a previous winner at the Cheltenham festival. The difficult part is finding which are the most relevant stats, form etc. It is a bit like Warnes job at RUFC. The reason he doesn't have Kayode and Cooper in his first team squad is because they haven't yet reached the level to play in the championship. He is letting them learn their trade in lower league football. To step them up too soon is not the correct thing to do. a bit like those 125 horses who hadn't won a grade 1 and were found out in the Gold Cup. Stay safe.
I know next to nothing about horseracing. I am not sure I have laid a bet on a horse race since putting the last bit of my student account overdraft on Kahyasi ridden by Ray Cochrane to win the Derby in 1988. I did that purely because I wanted to punt my last £50 on a horse that would keep me fed for a fair while if it won, and it romped home at about 12 or 14 to 1 or similar. Happy (and lucky) days.
One thing I do know is a great analogy when I see one. Nicely illustrated, Whiston.
Oh, and: -
'You say a horse doesn't know about trends. Of course that is correct. A horse doesn't know which race to enter in either'.
You change your mind so much which indicates to me you are as clueless on horse racing as you are on football. On 12th Dec 2020 you said this.' Goshen. Whats happened. I'm looking elsewhere for challengers to Epatante'. Don't bother telling me what you are doing or thinking, as i only listen to people who have some idea about the game. Stick to talking to those tap room charlies in Thurcroft. They know same as you. Sweet F.A.
I was glad you liked the analogy Smiler.
Very interesting that you are back on Goshen at 5/1 when you didn't have a penny on it at 25/1+. Yesterday it won a grade 2 hurdle on a flat track getting six pounds from a horse that has never run in a grade 1. No doubt about it Goshen won very well and deserves to take his chance in the champion and goes there with a chance, which would be enhanced if the going was deep. Phil Bull used to say look at horses best form and not it's poor runs. You felt Goshen put up its best performance in the Triumph so should have been backing it as it's price went out as that form was still in the book. See what i mean about your ever changing mind.
I will put up what i will do in one race at the festival. You will dismiss it because you do not grasp the way to give yourself a chance of making money long term and not this beating of the chest when you back a few winners for a couple of days a year. This is is long term betting strategy on a sound basis....... The Champion hurdle is a race where i will be having my maximum stake at the festival (£100). I am not comfortable putting on more than £100 so this is my max and i will only use this stake on possibly a handful of times a year. It looks to me like the race is down to three. Honeysuckle, Epatante and Goshen. If i was to dutch these to £100 i would make around £46 on whatever one of those three won. Honeysuckle 11/4, epatante 3/1 and Goshen 5/1 are available at the momenet. I have slight doubts about Epatante and Goshen. Epatante beat very little in last seasons champion and was beaten last time out (very few who lost LTO win the Champion. Goshen is a 5 .y.o and only three of those have won in the last 35 years, so the stats although not totally compelling against, are not speaking in his favour. Another way in is a 20/80 bet on Honeysuckle which is what i am favouring at the moment. £20 win at 11/4 and £80 place at around 1.45 gives a nice profit if it only places (which it has done in every race). I will look nearer the race as i dont think these prices will alter much. The ground is key for horses like Abracadabras, Silver Streak and Sharjah, who all want quickish ground. That is me done for Cheltenam. So all that remains is to wish anybody good luck who are punting. Remember though, the more work you put in the better your chances of success in whatever you do. Take no notice of people who say they have a tip,have a magic eye and people who just buy a daily newspaper and spout sh**e from a tap room.
whiston01 I've had a few p*ss corner tips in my time but I'm my own man when it comes to selecting horses. These eyes don't lie. When it comes to Roth U it's only my opinion I don't pick the side.
Unfortunately gwru i don't have that magic eye like you so i have to rely on other things to finalise my selections.
These are what i have looked at. i know you will take no notice but here are some freebies for you on the champion hurdle.
1..... 31 of last 37 winners won last time out. (Epatante finished second.
2...... 8/10 unbeaten that season. Only Honeysuckle of front 3 have done that.
3....... Irish and Henderson have had 18 of last 22 winners. Goshen fails on that.
4....... Aged 6 or 7.y.o have won ten of last 14. Goshen fails.
5...... 12/22 won at last festival. Goshen fails on that
6...... 5.y.o have won 2 champions since 1985.. 105 have tried. Bad stat for Goshen.
7... Just two horses have regained the the race since 1975... not good for Epatante.
I know you think horses don't know about trends/stats but they have a funny record of repeating themselves.
Champ today jumping questionable but you had to be impressed with the horses wellbeing. Royal Pagaille I'm still going with for the gold cup as long as ground as some soft in it's description.
whiston01 are you ready for Cheltenham? 1st day my fav' days racing of the whole year. Will be posting 2 or 3 selections a day if you are interested. See what grounds like tues' before my final choices but 2 for 1st day I can't see me changing my mind.
The greatest show on Turf has just finished but hardly a whimper from the worlds greatest tipster Gwru. I am sure he will say there is no interest on here and that's why he has been silent. My best guess is that the magic eye has has let him down. My guess also is that because the high street bookies are shut and he is so out of touch with the real betting world he hasn't been able to get a bet on !!!.
Is it time for me to blow my own trumpet? I will indulge just a little bit if that's ok. On 8th April 2020 i said this. ' Here is a horse, Chantry House i think will take high order next season as a novice chaser around 2m4f or further. I can see him being a Marsh or R.S.A candidate. On Thursday he won the Marsh at 9/1. On 21/2 2021 i also left people in no doubt that i expected Honeysuckle to go very close in the Champion Hurdle and said i was going £20 win and £80 place on odds of 11/4 and 1.47 a place. Honeysuckle hacked up in the Champion Hurdle.
Gwru put up two fancies for Cheltenham. Goshen a 5.Yr.old to win the champion. I pointed out to Gwru that five year olds have it all to do in the Champion. Only 2 winners since 1985 with 28 losing. Make that 31 as Goshen was beaten 26 lengths and the other two 5.yr olds finishing 4th and 9th..... He also put up Royal Pagaille in the Gold Cup. Again i pointed out the stats were bad for him. 125 horses have tried to win a Gold Cup who have not won a grade one. Royal Pagaille trailed in around 50 lengths behind the winner. Gwru told me horses don't know about stats. That is correct but i bet if they did Goshen would have said it's too early in my career and 'Royal' would have said let me try to win a grade one next year before pitching me into the Gold Cup.
It was obvious after the first race that the Irish Novice Hurdlers and juveniles were much better than ours. It was also obvious that the Irish had a grip on the handicaps (too difficult for me). You have to have your wits about you and use every offer available to you to make a profit at the Cheltenahm festival. I got just under £100 in free bets this year by opening just three new accounts(not many firms left for me now). You have to take those offers. You cannot rely on a magic eye or take notice of tap room charlies (perhaps Gwru missed those this year) to make money. You also have to use stats to get a profile of the horse required to win at Cheltenam. None of this for Gwru. I have a song that i think fits you beautifully Gwru. Living In The Past by Jethro Tull.
whiston01 I was waiting for you to post. Not had a bet. Difference between me & you I'm too much of a gambler to have an account. I've had one but it's no good to a gambler like me. Enjoyed watching it not selected a winner. Another thing I don't see much Irish racing so don't know much about form from there.
Good to hear from you Gwru. A gambler is somebody who bets on chance and takes risks. I like to take as much risk out as i can and give myself a better chance of making a profit. Flesh and blood are involved so there will always be some element of risk involved in horse racing.
You don't see much Irish racing so don't know much about their form. Now the Irish had 23 winners out of 28 at the festival, so don't you think it might be a good idea to get as much information about their racing as possible. I think you probably know a bit more than i do about football and RUFC (debatable), but when it comes to national hunt racing you are light years behind me imo. Since i retired 7/8 years ago i spend upwards of ten hours a day on National hunt racing from late Oct to the end of March. On a racing day i have the computer set on Geegeez form pages, the tablet on betfair odds, the mobile phone on oddschecker and the tv set up to watch RTV and sky racing. I also gather as much information as i can via the internet and social media. I have around 15 betting accounts and use several methods of placing bets. You cannot buy a daily paper, watch a bit of T.V discuss racing with people who haven't a clue about the game and expect to make money.
My punting season is just about over. I am not a fan of Aintree as it comes a bit quick after Cheltenham and the Irish tend to leave it alone a bit and concentrate on their festival at Punchestown. I think you might have a better chance of winning at Aintree as the Irish influence will not be as strong.
After the first win of Appreciate It and the placing of Ballyadam after nearly coming down, you could put a line through horses like Bravemansgame and Tritonic as it was clear the irish novices/juveniles were much better than ours. The Irish form was strong and it will continue whilst our prize money stays where it is. Today a grade 3 at Kempton pays half the amount of a grade 3 in Ireland. There is the reason why the Irish are currently prospering and we are struggling. No incentive for Irish owners to have their best horses trained here.
I will give you one piece of advice. Take up all the offers from bookies you can to new customers. I was able to get new accounts with two bookies. Virgin and Sporting Index. I got £80 of free bets with them. Sky Bet were also giving money back if your horse lost in the first race on the first two days and money back if your horse finished 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the first race on the last two days.That was another £40 of free money. You can get loads of those offers if you have hardly had any betting accounts. Stop gambling and taking bad risks when all it requires is you moving with the times. Come on Gwru stop living in the past and relying on a magic eye that isn't magic at all. You can never claim to be the number one punter on here until you change. In my mind you are a mug punter along with 98% of the population. Good luck in whatever road you take.
The 2021 Grand National will take place on April 10th 2021, however bookmakers don't open their shops until the following Monday, 12th April 2021. How will the bookies survive with empty money satchels?
whiston01 if your a gambler like me an account it's the worst thing you can have. Done that ok when you are winning but that makes you put more on then there's only one winner & that's not the punter. I will never pay for Racing TV, pay enough on sky now. Once flat season starts that's me done while Chepstow NH October.
How bad is that Gwru? That is admitting you cannot win at this game and also you haven't the discipline to control your gambling. The best advice i can give you is, stop altogether because the one thing you have to have is discipline. You can never win with your attitude and mindset anyway. Just go down to the pub/club when it opens and sit with your mates. They and you can tell each other how good you are and remember all those winning days. So good you cannot trust yourself to have an account. LOL.
