Apparently Goshen was suffering from a fibrillating heart yesterday . That was a problem that Denman once had so he can recover from that with rest. I hope you took my advice and are backing Kevin Brogan's mounts blind in conditional and amateur races. He was on McCrackens Gate today in a conditionals race at Southwell. It has just gone in at 17/2( won by a nose), much bigger on the exchanges earlier in the day and on the off. Like i said before he is miles better than a claimer and is worth following until he loses his claim, which won't be long. That was the first time in eighteen runs that McCrackens Gate has won. Pure gold dust against claimers this kid
I will put my anorak on Gwru (anybodyelse interested) and give you a stat for Cheltenahm (not just the festival) In 2020 in races run at Cheltenham there were 205 Irish trained runners of which 25 won showing a level stake profit of £231. In 2019 they showed a level stake profit of £164 , in 2018 they profited to the tune of £40 and in 2017 they profited to the tune of £90. I do not see this trend ending any time soon either. Over the weekend they were amongst the winners of four races i think. I am sure you can drill these stats down even better, but as a starting point for races at Cheltenham the Irish trained have to be the first port of call.
From Boxing day to today 29th been some absolutely stunning NH horseracing. I don't get to see much Irish horseracing so very welcome seeing the Leapardstown xmas meeting. Willie Mullins what a trainer he's got plenty to go to war with rest of the season. Novice chasers The Big Getaway yesterday & today Monkfish as Matt Chapman says I'll 2nd that are beasts. Plenty more from Mullins from this meeting. Paul Nicholls he's been flying the flag over here Bravemansgame today how impressive was it. Cheltenham festival just over 2 months away bring it on!
As you have said, some stunning racing over the festive period Gwru. What a trainer Mullins is. Of course he has the firepower but boy does he get the winners. Over the festive period at Limerick and Leopardstown he had 51 runners and 16 of them won. Six of the winners were from grade 1 races, and of those six, four were ridden by different jockeys. He just doesn't go in with his first string.
The Gold Cup picture is clouded imo. The betting has Al Boom Photo as favourite. He has been there twice and won, so no real arguments about him. However, last year he won a very slowly run Gold Cup and the year before it looked sub standard. The market is made up of a lot of horses who will not get the trip imo. A Plus Tard (jury is out but young enough to have a chance),Frodon, Melon, Waithig Patiently, Cyrname, Clan Des Obeaux, Delta Work. These will not be winning over 3m 2+f in a true run Gold Cup. Henderson ran Santini in the King George !!!. A track and trip that was never going to suit. I believe he thought the two Nicholls horses at the front of the market were vulnerable. He was correct but Santini wasn't quick enough to take advantage. It was won by Frodon who is possibly the best jumper of a fence in training and led all the way without being put under pressure. That will not happen in a Gold Cup surely. Minella Indo and Champ have better chances of staying the Gold Cup trip imo.
Epatante blotted her copybook again (beaten at the Chelt festival in 2019). She was beaten at Kempton by around 6 lengths by the same horse she beat in the same race last season by 5 lengths. She obviously failed to show her best form and some of The Henderson horses are under performing, but i believe she is not bomb proof but still the most likely winner of the Champion.
I watch all the Irish racing and note down horses i feel will be competitive at the Cheltenahm festival. As i said previously, the Irish horses are where you start with your study when it comes to Cheltenham. Goshen 20/1 and Easysland 50/1 were your early picks for Champion and Gold Cup glory Gwru. A fiver (which you scoffed at) double will now get you over 5 grand. Now that would be something for you to brag about.
The Gift that keeps on giving Gwru. Kevin Brogan has just won another conditionals race at Hereford. Apple Brook, freely available this morning at just under 7/1 on Betfair and better than 11/8 to finish in the first 5 !!!. I hope you took the advice i gave a few months ago.
Here is the first bit of info then Gwru. Avoid backing ten year olds or over at The Cheltenham festival in Grade One races. Only five have managed to win from the last 193 that have tried. That means a void Altior, Buveur D'Air and more importantly Min.
I backed Sea Pigeon to win champion hrd 1980 then a 10 yr old. My Dad did as well we were on the steel strike at the time. Happy days. But this year unless they are under the radar avoid 10 year olds or over.
I was in the steel strike as well. Sea Pigeon won the champion as an eleven year old in 1981 the year after, but this time ridden by John Francome. Yes, avoid ten year olds and over in grade 1's at the festival. As you can see the odd one s come in but it's a good starting point to remove them imo. Cue a ten year old winning now.
The Supreme Novices Hurdle kicks off the meeting. Appreciate It is most peoples idea of a banker. I have to admit it does look good and the opposition looks a bit weak imo. However, it has to defy two very strong trends/stats. 17 of the last 18 winners were aged five or six, and horses unbeaten over hurdles are two winners from the last forty four to try. Appreciate It is a 7.y.o unbeaten hurdler. Last years fav Asterion Forlange was unbeaten over hurdles and trained also by Willie Mullins. It was firmly put in its place by Shishkin beaten over 14 lengths.
The problem at trying to get Appreciate It beat this year is the opposition does not look strong. Metier, the scecond fav is also unbeaten over hurdles and possibly goes for The Betfair Handicap Hurdle this Saturday. That race only rarely produces the winner of the Supreme. The third fav is Ballyadam, which Appreciate it has beaten by 15+lengths at Christmas and by just over 3 lengths last weekend. A tough job to overturn the form but there were obvious signs that Ballyadam was improving. The Elliott stable has not been at its beat for a while. However, come Cheltenham he will have them bouncing. I would sooner play Ballyadam each way than go all in with Appreciate It as i respect those stats/trends.
With not being able to see Irish horseracing most of the time I'm not up with the form from there. All I do know which can go against the form horses who've been running on heavier winter ground the ground usually at the Cheltenham festival is no worse than good to soft. But the champion horses can go in any ground. Willie Mullins though from what I watched recently on ITV racing his stable seems stronger than ever.
I think you have to have Racing Uk if you are serious about horse racing. You can get a free month and then pay around £20 a month. Superb value and with all the Irish racing on there it is invaluable for me as i only bet serious over the jumps. With the lockdown meaning no viewing football live and pubs shut, you must be rolling in money. Get subscribed and give yourself a chance.
You are correct about W.Mullins, he has a very strong hand. Over the weekend he got something like nine out of the fifteen winners at the Dublin festival. Cheltenham like to produce good to soft ground for the first day. Last years meeting started on soft ground and improved as the meeting progressed.
No doubt in my mind that the best race at the festival is the Gold Cup. A race not for the feint hearted and one that is rarely won by back to back winners. L'escargot did it in 1970/71 , Best Mate in 2002/3/4. Last year Al Boom Photo for the second time,in successive years. Kauto Star won it twice but in years 2007 and 2009.
This might sound ridiculous but i am not sure 'Al Boom' is a great winner(Good yes). i am also not sure Best Mate would have been winning the Gold Cup against the likes of Kauto Star and Denman who came a few years after either. It is all about what you have to beat. This season 'Al Boom' has a doubtful stayer as second favourite and a horse as third favourite who would be a massive trends/stats buster..
That horse is Royal Pagaille. The last 21 winners of the Gold Cup had previously won at Grade 1 level. In that period 125 horses have tried to win the Gold Cup without winning a grade 1, all 125 were beaten. It can be done because Cool Dawn did it in 1998. However, my guess is Royal Pagaille will fall short like the other 125 that have tried did. The Gold Cup picture is falling apart and 'Al Boom' is a shortish favourite to make it three in a row. The opposition looks weak to me. Champ who i had hopes for hasn't even had a run this season, so faces a race against time to get him fit. Native River is around the fifth favourite, but horses his age very rarely win and for him to figure the ground would need to be heavy imo. Let's hope something can come good in the next week to shake up the market because i don't think it would take a 'great un 'to beat 'Al Boom'.
I don't think Al Boom Photo is up with the greats who've won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Just looked at the betting for the race hoping to find an alternative A Plus Tard hard to way up. Trip? & beaten here last year over a shorter trip. Royal Pagaille looks progressive just trainer don't think she's got that good a record at the festival. Can't have Champ. See what gets to the race but at the moment Royal Pagaille who I watched it's last race looks to tick most of the boxes.
What are you not getting here Gwru. i said i would put something up you didn't know. I also said you would take no notice of it. Royal Pagaille has not won a grade one. 125 horses have tried to win the Gold Cup who have not won a grade one, and all have failed. You must think it is a Cool dawn, who was the last non grade one winner to take the Gold Cup and that was in 1998. I think i have put up my last bit of fact as it falls on deaf ears with you. I really think you have a closed mind on most subjects. Good luck at Cheltenham because that is what you will be relying on.
MB no point tipping horses on here no interest. MM I've tipped horses at the Cheltenham festival & Grand National. Remember on Boxing day when Thislecrack won it tipping a treble that day. I'm not bothered if don't believe me. Over time I've tipped horses on there nobody can match me. You go on about trends, horse doesn't know anything about trends. I don't follow trends. Gold cup this year looks a far from vintage year. Royal Pagaille went down in my note book after it's last run. See nearer the day but I can't see anything coming through by then to alter my mind.
Just look at your last post and think why people really don't want to know about you or your opinions. You can add me to that ever growing list. I will make the same offer as i have made many times but you fail to take up. You can predict winners on Boxing Day, Cheltenham, grand national and probably any time of the year in your mind. Well here it is. i will stand every bet you want to make for a full year. Just put them up before the race with the selection and the odds available. At the end of the year whoever is winning pays the money to their chosen charity. Balls in your court. You will hear nothing again from me on horse racing. As i have said before i have forgotten more about the complexity of the horse racing game than you. Closed minds like yours love to hear the tap room charlies and their myths and beliefs that they actually know something. In reality they and you know sweet f**K ALL.
