Mon Choix 2.55 Sandown. Won a class 4 over 1mile on gd/frm ground 4 days ago. Today runs in a class 5. Max bet as every filter/conditions were met. Hacks up.
Gwru will be champing at the bit in anticipation for the start of the proper jumps season. Let me see if i can put a few pounds in his bank with a method that has produced the goods in Sept/Oct of the N.H Season.
This method is known as the Twister season. It revolves around Nigel Twiston Davies runners in September and October. By backing all his runners blind in those months in the last 5 seasons you would have made 14 pts in September and 23 points in October. That is from 442 runners over the past 5 seasons. Like all methods you can improve those figures by refining the bets.
By backing in handicap chases and handicap novice chases with horses who had one previous run in last 90 days and went off at 10/1 or shorter you would have made 9 points profit.
By backing in handicap chases and handicap hurdles (not novice handicaps) with horses not moving up in class at 8/1 or shorter you would have made 20pts profit.
By backing all horses in non handicaps in 17.5f or less that had not won a race at 20/1 or shorter you would have made 18 pts profit. This has showed a profit in all of the last 5 seasons.
As i have said before Covid 10 has made a big difference to how trainers operate and with the proper N.H season finishing in March the above methods could well be scuppered. I still think 'Twister' will have some of his string ready to fire as usual and it might still prove a positive way in. I will be monitoring it.
Not been watching any horseracing. October 1st jump meeting of the season at Chepstow I'll be back into it. All I do at the moment is look at the sun newspaper racing page whiston01 Pyledriver any chance in the Ledger? Trip? What ground does it favour? Goshen wonder plan for it? Prep race on the flat then international formally the Buler at Cheltenham. I'd sooner give it a prep race over hurdles. Easysland can't think of a plan for it. Looks a stayer not many staying races for the top horses.
Pyledriver was impressive in the Voltigeur and should stay. Not sure what it beat and i am not sure the 3.y.o colts are that good. It only has to beat it's own age in the Leger and might do that. Cannot see the British 3.y.o colts featuring in the Arc, but the filly of O'Briens might.
Really surprised Goshen hasn't featured on the flat as its handicap mark appears way below it's ability. That might indicate they want to keep it fresh for the hurdling campaign. I still think it;s a tall ask for a 5.y.o but he is undoubtedly a talented horse. Easyland has been kept to cross country races. I would imagine that will be the plan for him, but as you say it is a dour stayer and so very few horses get the Cheltenham Gold Cup distance. I hope covid doesn't scupper the proper racing when it starts in October. Always look forward to that Chepstow meeting.
whiston01 just been reading Gary Moore: Goshen. Says weren't ready for the Ebor though wouldn't have got in anyway. Says planning 2 or 3 runs on the flat then back over hurdles. Won't be many runs over hurdles not that many races over them to go for. As I've said International hrd former Bula hrd at Cheltenham a possible target. Could be Xmas hrd at Kempton or a prep race before the Champion hrd. Exciting horse to follow especially over hrd's
Goshen finished last of 6 at Haydock yesterday. Didn't see it so don't know if there was something amiss. Just been on Racing post site unless you are a member on there can't read what trainer says. Looked at the result there was less than 4 lengths from 1st to last so just hoping it needed the run.
-- Edited by gwru on Sunday 27th of September 2020 11:27:05 AM
I shouldn't worry too much about that performance. Goshen took up the lead after a couple of furlongs and held it to a furlong out where he ran out of steam. He is starting very early as his main target will be Cheltenham in March. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a couple of spins over the hurdles and given a long break in the new year before Cheltenham. I still think it will be too much for a five year old to win the Champion Hurdle though.
Moore has found a very easy Grade 2 for Goshen on Saturday Gwru. He is in the Elite at Wincanton and he should win it doing handstands. Moore thinks Goshen is the best horse he has trained and that includes Sire De Grugy who won the champion chase. Goshen is 8/1 for the champion. That price will have gone if he wins on Saturday.
Hope you are enjoying the racing from Cheltenham Gwru. Easysland jumped awfully, and if he jumped like that in a Gold Cup he would end up on the deck. Not sure he is anywhere near good enough and should stay to the cross country imo. Goshen has had two ordinary runs on the flat but was transformed over hurdles last season. Still think he has several pounds to find with the best and as a 5.y.o come champion day has it all to do imo.
I want to point you into some gold dust for punters. Kevin Brogan a 7lb claimer is as good as most senior jockeys and at least 7 lb better than any conditional or amateur. Top trainers have latched onto this and the bookmakers will follow. He has ridden winners for Fry, Pipe, Mullholland and is conditional for Jonjo O'Neill. I am not a fan of the O'Neill stable as they are so difficult to read. When this kid rides in a conditional race you are gaining a massive advantage so take note when he rides in them. I don't think O'Neill will be letting him ride much for outside stables especially when he moves to a 5lb claiming rider. He has rode 7 winners from his last 13 rides. He is good.
whiston01 loving racing from Cheltenham. Learning curve. Joy on Tom O'Brien's face yesterday says it all what it means to ride a big winner there. Shloer today fascinating race got to give Defi Du Seuil another chance. Greatwood Edwardstone got the profile for this, Alan King good record in this race last few years.
Hope you had some of that gold dust Gwru. The first time Brogan rode in a race for amateurs and conditionals since i told you about him was today in the 3.42 at wincanton. The horse backed from 6/4 into 10/11 and won on the bridle. He is different gravy to most professionals never mind amateurs and kids. He is destined for the top.
It was 3/1 when the prices went up and i nearly posted saying it was a good price. Still think 5/2 is ok as it only has to beat 155 rated hurdlers which it should do if fit and well. Giving 7lb to Epatante in the champion might be too much for any of them imo.
Just watched the International hurdle. Goshen pulled like mad as soon as the tapes went up. He didn't lead which surprised me and whether he resented being restrained i don't know. However, he had pulled his way to the front jumping the second last but he went out like a light and finished just under 30 lengths behind the winner. He was the only four year old in the race and i think it is a massive task for four year olds turning five on new years day to get to the top of the hurdling tree. It is still early days for Goshen this season but this is now three very ordinary performances since Cheltenham in March. I said before, last seasons four year olds looked a moderate bunch and up to just they have failed to enhance their reputation this season. Epatante could well go off odds on come the second week in march.
