The ground is now soft all over after 16mm of rain since end of yesterdays racing. This ground could well have done it in for stradivarius who has a great turn of foot when the ground is decent. Technician will love the ground but whether he can stay the 2m 4f is an unknown. He is out of Mastercraftsman who isn't a massive stamina influence but impressed when he won over 2m in deep ground over in France. The high draw advantage over 7f and 1 mile is now an unknown. It could be a bookies benefit day. Enjoy the day.
That's it for the meeting. 12 1/2 pts finished in front. I don't follow flat racing enough & no desire to. No good relying on tips nearly all the time.
Stradivarius was the only one who could stay the trip. I felt the ground might get him in trouble but he purely outclassed them. Very few flat horses can stay this 2m 4f trip. The long distance race won by the King horse the other day shows that in extreme distances national hunt horses do well. They haven't the class to win a gold cup but have the staying power to be dangerous in division two long distance staying races.
It is the same in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Very few national hunt horses stay 3m2f+ at the very top class. The Gold Cup is littered with plodders who stayed on into a place. Horses like, Anibale Fly, Don Poli, The Giant Bolster, Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges, Hedgehunter and Sir Rembrandt all got place money in a Cheltenham gold cup in the last 20 years.
You have done well Gwru to show a healthy profit. I still don't like your staking but i take my hat off to anybody who can make a profit in very tough racing like it is at Royal Ascot.
whiston01 Cheltenham gold cup winners it takes alot out of them. Some are never the same horse, Native river for example. I'm still thinking Easysland for next year. Only be a 7yr old then. Only 4 months if fixtures are the same till the NH season starts proper.
Soft ground at Ascot means i won't be going anywhere near Eye Of Heaven. He won his race on rattling quick ground breaking the 2.y.o. record. I have no doubt he is a good 2.y.o. but this soft ground is a total unknown. Do i want to take 6/4 to find out ? You must be joking. Wes Ward has a runner in it and although he is struggling to find winners in recent years he does have 2 wins from 7 in this race. A . O'Brien (that method i mentioned has made a profit on all 3 days so far) does well in this. He has had 3 winners , 6 placed from his last 20. Add to the race an impressive Michael Bell winner last time out and the 6/4 on Eye Of Heaven looks a bad price. It might hose up, but let it.
Did you look at the Chesham Stakes yesterday. There was an interesting horse for millers fans. It was called First Prophet. It ran last of eight. It won it's first race at Newbury, and who do you think had a 50% share when it won?. One Mr Dexter Blackstock. Now we all know Dexter is a shrewdie and an eye for making money. So what he does is flog the horse making good money to H.H. SH Nasser Hamad Al Khalifa. The horse looks a poor investment for the new arab owner, but Dexter, he is still ahead of the game.
They are now saying the ground is mainly good at Ascot. I think this shows what a difficult job it is to have confidence in betting at this meeting. The middle/high has held the sway on the straight course, but this place has a nasty habit of turning the draw on it's head for little apparent reason. If i was betting i would still look to high draws as the way in but without total confidence. I think the festival man Gwru was correct when he called it a day whilst well in front.
I will make this one of my last posts on horse racing for a while and leave you with something i was given by my grandfather in the mid sixties. He was not a punter/gambler and didn't study the game at all. In fact this was the only bets he had. This method has shown a profit around 25 times out of the 35 years i have monitored it. Many people have tweaked it and it can be improved upon. This simply is what is.
Back any horse than ran in the last four days and finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd. I am sure people will say it's too simple and ignore it. Some have tweaked it and only backed in handicaps, over the same distance of it's last race, or over the same going. That's all fair enough but the basics still do the job. This week there has been four selections and three have won. The loser was at Royal ascot. Good luck everybody.
whiston01 enjoyed your input this week. My last selection today for a while. 47 years I've been gambling on the horses. I was always working so it was only weekend racing I concentrated on. For as far back as I can remember I always had the Cheltenham festival off. The best race meeting in the world, all your form is there. I'm looking back over say last 20 years I've had more winning Cheltenham festivals than losing but now I've cut back on gambling very selective. This years festival I had 8 bets 4 winners so I've worked that out at level stakes which they were more or less using whiston01 his way taking total stakes off 1st I finished 8 pts up. If you could do that everytime you'd be well in front. My winners were all my own tips I'd seen all run before. That would be be my only advice trust in what you believe in, go on what you've seen.
Pinatubo had a fantastic 2.y.o career and had the highest rated official rating ever for a two tear old. He was fractious at the start and didn't quicken at the end of the 2000 guineas. Wichita finished a length in front of him. Doyle, the jockey of Pinatubo believes he has improved a stack since the guineas and will win today. That could be the case but at a best priced 6/4 i think i would prefer to let it run than back it.
Totally agree with you that Cheltenham in Mrach is the best racing in the world. To a certain extent i also agree with going on what you see (main reason i subscribe to Racing Tv). However, as i said before horse racing is an ever changing picture. Stats, Betfair, Irish form, breeding etc play a big part nowadays. The lightly raced Irish horses (mainly novices) play a big part in Cheltenham festival handicaps which they didn't only ten years ago. People like Elliott and especially Mullins are masters at getting a horse handicapped way below its ability.
whiston01 I never looked at the handicaps at the Cheltenham festival. My 8 bets there were in graded races mostly grade 1 or in the case of the cross country there off level weights. Don't know if it flattered Easysland but to beat Tiger Roll off level weights that easily when the latter was rated higher than a gold cup winner in this years cancelled National was an eye catching performance. If I owned Easysland I'd be training it for the Gold cup next year but keep clear of the King George, it's more of a stayer.
The Derby being run in July is an unusual happening. I think you have to go back centuries to find another one.
Now the 12 year stats i would usually use might be useless this year.
9/12 in top 3 in the betting.... 9/12 drawn 7 or higher..... 10/12 ran in last 35 days..... 12/12 at least placed on last run.... 10/12 ran at least 3 times..... 11/12 O.R 109 or higher..... 10/12 at least 1 win in a group race...... 12/12 at least 1 run in season...
The favourite is English King. Dettori on board and the winner of the Lingfield derby trial in decent style. Not sure the form amounts to much and for me he is a very short price. His draw in one for a hold up horse is far from ideal.
Kameko. Winner of our guineas and a two times group one winner. He should be the favourite. The worry is he steps up four furlongs. He is out of Kittens Joy an American stamina influence over in United States but not conclusive over here. Big chance.
Mogul. The selection of Ryan Moore from six O'Brien entries. He put up a stinker at Royal Ascot but has long been thought of as the stables main hope for the Derby. He is drifting like a barge so it's a bit confusing. I expect him to be backed. Drawn two is far from ideal.
Russian Emperor. Won at Royal Ascot with Moore up. After drifting out in the betting he has now been backed into shorter than Mogul. All very confusing.
Pyledriver. Beat Mogul at Royal Ascot by 4. 3/4 lengths yet is over twice Moguls price. Unfashionable stable, might lack the class to take this but with four places he has a chance of each way winnings.
With sixteen going to post and bookies paying four places punters have a chance of making a profit. For me there is a lot of ifs and buts.Kameko is the class horse and Mogul is the one who will turn up a different horse than last time today. I can only recommend a watching brief. There is a horse who runs in the race that i have an eye on for future engagements. The horse is Worthily. This has stamina to burn. I expect him to be running on at the end. I might have a few quid ante post on him for the St Leger at 33/1 because a good run today would see those odds shorten. Stay safe and enjoy the entertainment
Watched Oaks & Derby. Love impressive winner of the former, don't know what she beat. Latter whiston01 when I was gambling right I got stabled licked more than once by Aiden O'brien horses. Looking like the only way you can win is to back all of his horses in the Derby.
Barry Geraghty retired. Different jockey to McCoy but one of the best. Had to be to be no. 1 jockey for JP McManus. Rode all the big race winners. There's not many rode Grand National Cheltenham gold cup Champion hurdle winners. Remember him getting me a straight treble up when Kicking king won the King George for a 4 figure return. Best thing get out at the top still body & mind in tact.
Yes, he was a great jockey. In Walsh, McCoy and Geraghty we had three of the best ever national hunt jockeys. Hope you have been following that system i gave you. Ran in last 4 days and finished first, second or third. It has been banging in the winners without any filters (which i use). Two more from 4 yesterday. Won 11/10 , won 10/3 and a second and at 5/1. By using filters like, same distance, going and class it's a real money spinner.
Just the one from the system today. Not On Your Nellie in the 5.25 at Ripon. Ran second two days ago in a class 5 maiden. Today it goes in a poor class six handicap. Tinkler has put a 5 lb claimer on. Today it goes off 58 not including the 5lb claim. Last season it ran a good third off 63 in a nursery. I made it a very strong bet as it passed most of my filters. If it had won a race before i would have made it a maximum bet. Plenty of 7/2 available and won easily at 9/4. Not all of these system bets win but it gives you a way in. The horse is fit and the trainer is telling you he wants to get it out quick and strike whilst the iron is hot. This is a strange flat season and i expected the system to flop. It hasn't and backing them blind is making a profit. Well worth a look.
