As i said earlier this years Royal Ascot could be totally different. However, top trainers have a knack at getting their horses right on the big occasions. Gosden, Stoute and A. O'Brien have their strings performing well and have superb records at Royal Ascot.
Stoutes record at Royal Ascot 2010-2019 is outstanding. He has had 131 runners and 20 winners. Backing them blind would show a profit. However, a little bit of tweaking and you can improve on that. Back all Stoutes 3-5. y.o's. in non handicaps at 12/1 or less and he has 18 winners from 64 runners. This has shown a £63.40 profit to a £1 stake.
A.O'Brien from 2015-2019 has also done well 294 runners and 42 winners. However, again a bit of tweaking and you can improve on it. Back all O'Briens male runners with R.Moore riding at 14/1 or less. This has delivered 22 winners from 87 runners. A strike rate of 25% and a profit of £68.83 to a £1 stake.
I am still looking at Gosdens but his record is also very good. The 2.y.old i mentioned on a previous post runs in the Norfolk stakes on Friday. As expected he has been well found in the market and is currently the 5/1 favourite. It is called Eye Of Heaven and trained by Mark Johnston. He won at Newmarket where it was advantageous to be drawn up against the rail. He was positioned in the middle but won well breaking the two year old track record. Dettori was on and is booked to ride on Friday. A.O'Brien has one in it that is also being backed. Might be a watching brief but the Johnston horse looked a very good early two year old.
whiston01 I'll watch Eye of Heaven Friday seeing you've put it up probably on catch up on sky sports racing. I've not got pay racing ch. Think your more into horseracing generally than me but I try to watch when it kicks into gear as much NH horseracing as I can. I never saw Goshen run before the Cheltenham festival. Said betting shops can reopen tomorrow. William hill say they will only reopen their main city bookies to start with. I can't see our local bookies reopening as yet, not big enough for social distancing as it stands now.
John Gosden is up there with the best flat trainers of all time. He has an outstanding record at Royal Ascot and there is several routes in to backing him. Over the last few years at the meeting horses sired by Dubawi, Frankel and Sea The Stars have showed a profit. 8 winners from the last 23 runners. However, one stat for Gosden stands out at Royal Ascot, and it's a simple one. Back all his s.p. favourites at 3/1 or less. Of the last 20, thirteen of them have won. That's a 60% strike rate giving a £19.11 profit to a £1 stake. Not bad for favourites.
I have had a good look at the first days racing at Royal Ascot. As expected it's tricky. The Ascot derby and Oaks feature tomorrow (2.25 and 3.00). This to my knowledge is the first time they have gone off before Epsom, so they could be good trials for the big event. A. O'Brien runs Mogul in the 3.00 race. This horse cost 3.4 million and is Japans half brother. Gosden has the favourite in the 2.25 and could be anything. If i fancied her i would back her for the Epsom oaks as she is 12/1 for that and only 7/4 tomorrow. Not for me either of those races.
If i am to have a bet tomorrow it will be in the last. This is a 2m4f race and one which favours jumps based trainers. It has also been good for the top six in the market. I think you need to look for a five year old or older, has ran over hurdles and is 12/1 or less. That narrows the field down and the favourite Verdana Blue fits the bill. A very good hurdler but one major niggle. His trainer N.Henderson although as good as any in the national hunt field has an awful record in this. He has got R. Moore up and is the 4/1 favourite. Possibly too short for me. One at 14/1 ticks most boxes. Blue Laureate trained by Ian Williams. Had a run this season, finishing second and has put top apprentice Cieran Fallon up. Not in the same league as Verdana Blue over hurdles but this 2m4f will take some getting and i think Blue Laureate might be stouter stayer. San Benedito from Paul Nicholls has been well backed from 33/1 into 16's. He looks a plodder to me but Nicholls has been doing well with the few flat runners he has run. After all that it's more than likely just a watching day. Ascot could get some heavy downpours this week and that would scupper some hopes.
Kaeso. Has placed twice in big field 7f handicaps at the course. O.Murphy is an eyecatching booking for the N.Tinkler yard. He is up 7lb to 99 from his last place at Ascot. Will be thereabouts.
Glass Slipper. This all depends on which Battaash turns up. If this was a flat track he would be much shorter. He has had three goes at Ascot and got beat in all of them. He is rated 126 and the next on o.r is Glass Slipper on 116. Glass Slipper hacked up on heavy ground in last years L'Abbaye with Battaash miles behind. If fit and has trained on Glass Slipper could bustle up the favourite.
Verdana Blue: 160 rated hurdler with R.Moore up and trained by a master N.H. trainer that this race suits. His class could see him hack up. I still have a slight doubt about this 2m4f distance. His last run on the flat was over 1m4f and he got beat at 1/3.
All good stuff but my advice is to hold fire. Nobody really knows what the draw is, how the ground will ride and which horses are more forward. The old saying is this. If you are guessing don't bet.Hope you enjoy the racing on T.V Gwru.
whiston01 I'm changing tip in 4-40 trip & top weight it's against fav'. Selection now Coeur De Lion follow Alan King over the jumps. Says it's come down to sort of mark it's won off, it's won over a similar trip. Goes on decent ground betting says it's not without a chance.
Alan King does well with the few flat horses he runs. He is a shrewd operator imo.
Coeur De Lion ran 5th in this last year beaten 8 lengths off 93. it goes off 91 this year. He is a 135 rated hurdler so is decent. He is a stout stayer and won a Chester plate i believe. He will be staying on when others have cried enough. Sound each way bet imo. A lot of money has been for Moon King. A 4.y.o trained by the in form Beckett. Has to prove it stays for me.
Winner of first race drawn 26. Next three home drawn 22, 16 and 27. Classic Ascot over 7 furlongs. Won by a horse that was held up and came home close to the rail. Kaeso drawn and ran in the middle of the track. He had no chance from there.Will high numbers hold sway over i mile tomorrow ? your guess is as good as mine. You do not want to lead though.
A falsely run group one favoured horses up with the pace. The whole field came over to the stand side. It could be a high draw and still a hold up horse in the big field handicaps tomorrow over a mile . A O'Brien trained and R. Moore ridden under 14/1 gave you a nice 4/1 winner.
I'm back! Showed them on MM whose the boss at Cheltenham. I'm not saying I've won anything yet it's a long week but there's something to go to war with the rest of the week. My own tip saw picture of Alan King in the sun newspaper: last race today so had a study of the form of his horse in it looked not without a chance. Have a look at tomorrow's card later.
Very good selection Gwru. The national hunt trainers finished first and second and was the way in. Backing to level stakes and having three selections a day, you are forced to show a profit at Royal ascot this year. Well done.
A great start Gwru.If you had 1pt on each today i make it 14pts up. 3pts invested and 17 returned. Why would you want to double your stake!. I can understand having a bank and a set amount on. If the bank goes up divide it again to get the new stake, but double it!?!. An example of that is a £1000 point bank. Divide it by 50 to get the starting stake which would be £20. Your first bet wins at 10/1 thus giving you £1200 . You then divide that by 50 to get your new stake.
Japan is my long term fancy for the Arc. He finished 4th in it as a 3 .y.o from a poor draw. He should win tomorrow if he is fully wound up.Some tough handicaps tomorrow.
whiston01 winner at 16-1 with your stake back 17 pts - 2 level stakes losers my maths in front 15 pts. Way I work up your stakes when your playing with the bookies money though I'm not gambling I just like to keep in front of the game.
Let's get the simple maths/accountancy out of the way first then go on to a much more important subject.
Let's say yesterday you had these bets.
£1 Kaeso
£1 Glass Slippers = £3 invested/outlay
£1 Coeur De Lion
Returns A winner at 16/1 =£17 return/income
£17 - £3 = a profit on the day of £14 or 14 pts if a point is 1
As i have said before only 2% of punters make a profit. One of the main reasons they lose is inconsistent staking. They also have a mentality of jam today. That means they have no long term planning. You appear to have a gift of finding winners ( not many have it). However, after finding a big priced winner to a 1 point stake you immediately double your stake the next day on short priced horses (5/2 and 5/4) but leave the 1 point stake on today's 16/1 shot. This sort of gambling can only lead to one thing, the bookies winning back what you gained plus much more. My guess is that is what has happened to you over a very long period. As a bookie i wanted some of the big hitters to find some winners. It revved them up and they started to think they had found the golden egg and would plunge on the shorties.
I think it looks like you are an old fashioned win only bettor. You don't do many each way, dutch bets, 20/80 or lay bets. That narrow approach again can only lead to a long term loss, especially as you are not getting best odds or shopping around to get them. By finding the odd winner at big festivals does not mean you are the real deal. You shouting about it shows your ignorance of this complex but great battle we have in making a profit.
Watch out for the rains today it could well throw the form and draw up in the air
whiston01 I'll go with 14pts up I'm not to 1pt. I don't gamble like I use to do. Not gambling on the flat. I'm not a lucky person so pointless me having anything other than straight wins. E/W betting to get a place is not gambling to me it's playing safe. Way I work try to get your money for the week on the 1st day of these big meetings then be very selective that's if I'm actually placing bets. When Long run won the Cheltenham gold cup I won enough for two sizeable bets for me on the 1st day of that years festival. 1st one was 2nd Pipes horse against Big Bucks 2nd, Long run obliged. More years than not the Cheltenham festival form works out so I've had more winning festivals there than losing. Tell you when my luck was in for once. My dad liked a bet. I was on days he'd been out for a paper. Haydock NH I'd got a spare £10 in my pocket. I wrote bet out £10 double on 2 of Graham Bradley's mounts. Went to work no way of knowing the results got home from work was getting dark all lights were on in the house. My mother said your Dads got your money. He gave me £550. I gave him £50 for his trouble. Happy days.
It's not about being to a point,you would have made 14pts not 15 end of. You were wrong which i know is very rare for you but there it is.
I now realise ( have done for a long time) that what i am talking about is way above your head. My advice to you is keep enjoying your betting and the wins you have. You will never record your bets or change what you are doing. That is fair enough. The Cheltenham gold cup is on the last day of the Cheltenham meeting. How that could have won you money for the first day of that years festival i do not know. Perhaps you meant next years Cheltenham festival. Enjoy your racing today and the rest of the meeting.
whiston01 you go to the bookies have level stakes bets on 3 horses one wins so you get that stake back in your returns. So you only lose the two stakes on the losers. So yesterday on a 16-1 17 pts returns - 2 same stakes losers that's makes you 15 pts up on the day. I know how it works I've been gambling since 1973. Year Long run won the gold cup on the 1st day of that meeting I backed 1st two winners both round about 8-1. Single bets. Won for me enough to wait till the last two days of that meeting for the two horses I really fancied. No more bets in between. I split all my winnings into two placed straight wins on those two. Long run only winner of the two but made a tidy profit. That's the way I roll.
You have been gambling since 1973 and still you are wrong. What about the 1pt stake on the 16/1 winner doesnt that count. You had 3pts on and got 17 back. That's how it works and i've taken bets in the past.
Let's see if you know owt about this. The most over used word in betting is value. I bet you and your tap room charlies have often said this. I don't fancy the favourite it's too short at 4/5 i'm going to back mug punter at 12/1 for the value. It is not easy to find value in horse racing. It's easy to show what value is though. If a bookmaker were to offer you 5/4 heads coming up most in 1000 spins of a freshly minted coin i would take the 5/4 all day because it's true chances are even money. Some people believe there is no value in odds on shots. I can assure you there are in some. If you backed all odds on shots you would be a big loser, but what about this odds on shot. Would you back it. Liverpool are playing Tranmere Rovers at home in a big game with both sides fielding their best teams. Liverpool are 1/5, the draw is 19/4 and Tranmere are 10/1. I would get as much on Liverpool as i could because i believe they should be a 1/20 shot.
Let me know where that bookie is who gives you 15pts profit on 3 single pts staked and only one winner at 16/1. He is offering value.
whiston01 backing at the bookies you get your stake back if it wins so 16-1 you get 17 pts back - the two losers gives you 15pts returns on the day. Agree a short priced winner is better than a longer priced alternative that doesn't win everytime.
