You really must read what i put Gwru. At Doncaster horses drawn high in the 70's on quick ground. No mention of soft ground. You claim Jockey club turns a blind eye not like football !!. Well, when Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman takes over at Newcastle it will make five premier clubs who have heavy Arab investment. None of them have a good record on human rights,regard women as third rate citizens etc,etc.
I will repeat what i have said and add to it your mates in the pub. I have forgotten more about racing than you lot put together. Only 2% of punters make a long term profit and my guess is you lot do not feature in that elite band. I bet none of you record your bets to see how you fare over a season. If you did the losses would surprise you. I will repeat what i offered a while ago. I will stand all your bets, your mates in the pub as well and at the end of the NH season i will give the money you make to a charity of your choice. If you lose you will pay the money to a charity of my choice. That offer stands. Let's see how good a tipster you really are and your mates if you want. Obviously what i said previously hasn't sunk in (didn't expect it to) it is not all about finding winners. Todays racing has changed.
I will now carry on the discussion with New Yorkshire. Racing starts up again on Monday with all weather at Newcastle. Racing has been stopped for nearly ten weeks. This is not like the start of a normal flat season. Will the same trainer**** the ground running or will normally slow starters get their horses ready quicker with a much shorter season? I have no idea so i will not be placing bets until form has settled and we see how trainers are getting on. .. I hardly ever bet on the All weather but do know front runners are favoured over 5 and 6f at Newcastle. At Newcastle horses sired by, See The Stars, Invincible Spirit, Dutch Art, Dark Angel, Lope De Vega, Kheleyf, Pivotal and Dubawi all show a profit to level stakes with horses running for the first or second time on that surface. Add to that Gosdens, Johnsons, Burkes, Haggas, Fanshawe, Fahey and Ed Walker runners and you have a start... Trainers who do well early season in a normal year with handicappers are Jane Chapple Hyam, P Charalmbos, S Kittow, K. McKlintock, M.Meade,J.Portman, Fahey, Quinn and M. Appleby. Watch out for early market movers and this may be a way in if you have to play. Negative in the market could be a lay opportunity ( i wil help you with that Gwru if you are struggling to grasp it). My advice though is to hold fire.
whiston01 your idea of horseracing & mine are totally different. I've paid to learn from 73 when I 1st started gambling on the horses. I know how it works. You won't make it pay backing all the time that's why I concentrate on the NH from October till the end of April the following year. My bets then are very selective. I'm not wasting my time putting tips up on here there's no interest. Another thing I don't follow premiership football either but I do know there's Arab owners of clubs there. That will be one of the main reasons why they don't care what happens to league 1 & 2 EFL clubs.
whiston01 I backed Stone Ridge to win the Lincoln in 96 at 33-1. Just watched it on u tube drawn low in soft ground that's why I backed it E/W. It was on the straight course. I had a good return back saw my gambling mates right for beer that afternoon!
I am not sure why you are not getting high drawn horses on quick ground in the seventies had the call. From 73 -77 the winners came from stalls 22, 22, 18, 14, and 24. On soft ground you are correct, and as with a few courses soft ground turns the draw advantage on its head. Pontefract being a classic example where they leave the rail and come up the stands side.
Youv'e paid to learn eh. Being selective is a good start and concentrating on national Hunt over flat is fine by me. I bet you have never recorded your bets in your life to see where your winning bets are coming from, or more importantly trying to cut out the bad bets. Don't waste your time putting up your selective bets or the tap room charlies bets either. All that would do is confirm you and your mates cannot make a profit long term. I am not saying i can either, but i will definitely be recording all the bets i have and changing the way i operate as racing is an ever changing picture.
I will leave you with a bet that has stood the test of time over the fifty years i have been involved in racing. That is the each way double. Pro punters use it and bookmakers will stop it as soon as they think the punter knows what he/she is doing. Not just any old each way double but one where the punter has the edge(what its all about). Look for a race which has around 9 runners (beware of non runners) and where there is form to look at (no unraced horses) . The favourite needs to be around evens or shorter and the next two in the betting are around 3/1 to 6/1. The rest are 25/1 plus. The market is saying this can only be won by one of the front three in the market and is won by them on average 97% of the time. What you do is select either the second or third favourite and have them in an each way double. If they only place at 3/1 a profit is made. On odd occasions they both win and you are in clover. This is selective betting at its best.The bookies hated this bet so much that in the 70's/ 80's they cut the placed odds to a sixth a place if the favourite was odds on. Very few bets in a season but well worth waiting for. It actually works better on flat racing than national hunt.
whiston01 I want to win something worth winning I'm not fathing about with E/W doubles. Think your abit of an anorak nothing wrong with that. I'm more into the crack but I don't stand in the bookies. I study races, my selections are made before racing begins on the day sometimes well before in the case of Epatante as soon as I saw her win the xmas hurdle knew would take all the beating in the Ch hrd. Watched 2,000 guineas today another Arab owned winner I believe not the one most wanted. Try as they want Flat racing will never do it for me like jump racing. October can't come soon enough!
-- Edited by gwru on Saturday 6th of June 2020 08:11:11 PM
I think whiston01 should take the comment about him being an anorak as a compliment and recognition of a systemic approach that actually looks at the statistics of a horse winning under a certain set of predictable conditions made so because of analysis of past racing data. Betting has always been a "mug's game" because noone can actually be bothered to put in the time and effort to do the research or have the patience to wait for the conditions to be right. I recognise your passion for racing grwu but not your method.
I've studied horse racing for around fifty years. I've backed horses, stood as a bookmaker and written in a journal. No i am not an anorak but i will repeat what i have said before. I have forgotten more than Gwru and his tap room charlies know about the game. I don't expect Gwru to be interested in selective each way doubles that pro bettors have used in the past. Why ? Because he is a guaranteed loser.
Alex Bird was a pro punter for many years. He didn't make most of his money by backing wildly on some hunches or following the herd. He found a niche. That niche was to back in photo finishes. In those days the photo took up to five minutes to decide which one had won.What he did was stand as near to the line as possible, cover one eye and if he thought the one nearest to him had won he would back it at whatever price he could get. He was correct 90% of the time and it made him a fortune. That wouldn't be for Gwru. He wants the thrill of finding winners and bragging about the odd occasion he gets it right. Even if it meant he had lost over a period of time (which he does) it's being able to brag about his winners that counts.
Oh how i would love to get into that tap room where Gwru and his gang have their bets on the big meetings. I could go with a bag and a pen and paper to record the bets i was taking. I wouldn't need to take any money because their bets would more than cover the odd winner they had found. However, although my bag was reasonably full of cash. The tap room charlies and Gwru would say. We have about come out even. Aye ok.
Here's another selective method that has shown a profit every year since 2013. Very few bets, around 3-4 a month but an 86% strike rate and a 10 % return on investment. National Hunt only, price between 1.01- 2.0 and won in the last six days. These really are the pro's bets as the odds are very short (up to evens in old money) but it is profitable and yet again another niche. I do have a slight worry about the bet this season however. Will summer jumps start at the same time and will the trainers use their early quick ground horses in the same way as before. This method has proved very profitable between July - October. I know Gwru will have nothing of this bet as it's a slow burner but if there is any serious punters out there this will provide one winning method when and if racing ever returns to its normal setting. If it doesn't you have to look for other methods as it's an ever changing picture.
whiston01 I'm old school: horseracing. Betting on photo finishes bet he wasn't short of money to start with. When it was a people's sport, when the money you had leftover for the week if you were like me a gambler covered my flutter. Weren't just tap room punters to me there were legends among them. Racing trips we had halcyon days. My golden rule was no winning bet in 4 I've done for the day, no chasing losses. Remember Uttoxeter one year my 1st 3 bets were down, next race this years Cheltenham gold cup winner Cool Ground running, still running I was after that went for a drink in the town itself got back to the coach bookies runner from our tap room was laid on the grass he'd blown his money in but he was looked after for the night. That how it was we looked out for each other. Not the same now the old punters have gone. Me I'm still here, these eyes don't let me down. I've been on these sites MM, MB for a few years now not seen anyone who can match me for tipping winners. Believe me or believe me not but I won't be tipping horses on MB. I'm not wasting this racing brain on people who can't see past their nose. In other words Warney boys. The manager to me he's got to prove to me he's got it. Wouldn't have taken much to get out of league 1 this season in truth we aren't going to get out of it by playing. Putting my tipping head on doubt we would have done.
whiston01 I do agree with you. Summer jump racing it's easier to find winners than when it gets more competitive when season moves up a gear in October.
I think it's fair to say my way of trying to make money at horse racing is a lot different to yours Gwru. I am not interested in the slightest how you claim to be the best for tipping winners on this site. It's how you go about it and the methods you use that counts. It looks to me you rely on your eyes and then claim to be the best on a few days racing a year. Lol
It is about looking at the ever changing picture. Imo you need to record every bet you have, for reasons i have said before. You need to subscribe to a quality publication/internet provider where you can study the form. In the past from mid 80's to mid 90's i bought the Superform twice weekly printed form book ran by Kevin Gilroy. It was second to none imo for form,ratings, pace figures and write ups,etc.. I had a fair period out in the 90's and early 2000's because of work and family, and when i returned to the game Superform was struggling to keep up with the internet and in 2008 Kevin retired. Since then i have tried various form providers, from Racing Post, Pro form and others. The one i now use is one i have used for around the last six years and that is Geegeez Gold. I was in at the start of this and pay £8 a month for it. As i was in from the start my charges have never and will never go up. I believe it's cost are now around £30 a month. It provides everything you need and more and is a tremendous tool in the battle with the bookmaker. I also subscribe to Racing T.V and watch free to air Sky racing. I watch every race whether it be live or recorded to watch at a later time. Now i am retired ( since 2014) i have plenty of time for study and to watch the racing. The biggest change of the last ten years at least has been the advance of Betfair. I follow the markets religiously and have a feel when there is real money about and when it is false money. You have to know which stables like to gamble their horses and which do not. For me the Betfair market is up there with form study as the most important part of making a profit. I also like to look at stats for the big races and on the flat keep an eye on the draw, but as said before be very wary of selective watering. I have watched Haydock today and feel a low draw was worth a length or so over high so the first winner which came up the stands side might be worth following. I am only touching the surface as to what i do on a days racing and will put a few more ideas up. Btw i have not had a bet yet this flat season and possibly will not until well into July.
Great reading as ever Whiston01. The thing that makes me think you need to be in the know is the fact that a lot goes on in racing we don't know about. I once paid for my dad to be an owner for the day as a present (got to go to stables and in parade ring etc.) and we had breakfast with the trainer in his house. He told us not to back his horses that day because they were effectively being schooled on the course which isn't allowed but happens. So you also have to know if they are "trying" or not. If I have ever bet on a race it's been on one where there is a decent prize or a higher quality thinking that the entrance fee for such races would put people off from just throwing them in. His horses came last btw but he did give us a tip that won. Whiston01 where do you stand on laying bets against a particular horse on the internet? I'm assuming you can do this now - get odds for it not to win
You are spot on New Yorkshire when you say you need to be in the know. The problem is very few are in the know and those that are don't give the information away. This is why i believe Betfair is possibly our best guide. The market on here is money people are betting against each other. Not what bookies think.
You can lay horses on Betfair. I believe this is your best chance of making money. My advice would be to only lay short priced horses. Up to 7/4 (2.75) is my cut off point. Many people think laying big odds is the way to go but you can soon get your fingers burnt on higher priced horses imo. At the weekend i thought Pinatubo at odds on was a shocking bet. If it had been a normal season i would have stood against him at around even money. I didn't because of the unknown of this season. No form, no trials, no real stable form etc,etc. All Pinatubos form was as a 2.y.o over a shorter distance. He was vulnerable. Don't be surprised if he drops back in distance at some point this season. Somebody like Gwru who has this special eye at spotting how good horses are should be making a killing at laying false favourites on Betfair. The problem with him is that he is stuck in his ways. As i said before his chances of making a long term profit is virtually non existant.
Not interested in betfair. I only get pleasure in taking money off bookies not the betting public. True this I once paid for tips. 1st tip was free that won. Next 3 tips all won but I had to put £50 on for the tipster & just pay the returns if there was any into his account. I'm true to my word & did that. Couldn't get nobody to come in with me so told tipster not to send me anymore tips. But could tell they were unexploded horses he was tipping. He called them plots. I'm not following horseracing at the moment. Will watch the Derby as always that's me done with flat racing for the season. Dogs I know some fiddles on them. I worked with 2 blokes who worked for a bookie on Sheffield dogs. This bookie got banned from Sheffield dogs. Was told what was to be a well backed favourite would be stopped so he opened up on it higher than any bookie on the rails. It got beat there was complaints, an investigation & bookie warned off Sheffield dogs.
whiston01 do you think ITV racing are overdoing it with amount of racing being shown at the moment. Mediocre racing nearly all of it. All weather racing should have been kept to the winter. To me seen one flat race you've seen them all. Enjoyed that snooker tournament that's just been on. Special word for Ashley Carty from my neck of the woods, showed up well hope it gives him confidence to move up the rankings.
I do think ITV are overdoing it but they haven't got a lot of sport to go at. For a Saturday todays racing was very ordinary. Like you i much prefer N.H. to flat but i am looking forward to Ascot next week. I will post up some of the things i look at in Royal Ascot week.
As for snooker. What i know about it you could put on a postage stamp. I watched Ashley Carty against Ken Docherty and thought the quality was very poor. I always thought you had to get the middle of your chin right over the cue, thus making you look down the centre of the cue. Carty has the cue to the side of his face !!. For me he will struggle to cut any ice in the game. I hope i am wrong and as i said i know naff all about the game.
After Roth U would say NH horseracing then Snooker sports I'm most interested in. Think last tournament was just getting the cue arm going again. World championship starting end of July see whose ready to challenge to win that. Royal Ascot it's like going in blind most of the races. I can't get a bet on anyway. Won't have an account.
Oh dear Gwru you talk of betting blind. Anybody who hasn't got several accounts including Betfair might as well throw their money down the toilet. If ever there was any doubt about you having any clue about this game has now gone out of the window. You have to use several accounts to take advantage of prices, concessions etc. Also Betfair S.P out perform official S.p over 90% of the time. I am not saying you should back to S.p but definitely saying the more accounts the better.
Ascot starts on Tuesday. Very different this year to before. They were predicting £8 million prize money for this years event but because of covid it now stands at £3.7m. The big stables (like at Cheltenham ) hold sway. There is a draw and pace advantage on quickish ground imo. Not massive but enough to give you a slight edge. You still have to select the right horses !
At 5f on quickish ground. High drawn perform slightly better. At 6f high drawn again have a slightly better strike rate. Pace setters at these distances perform better than hold ups especially at 5f.
At 7f it is very difficult to win from the front. Of the last 90 horses that have tried to lead in large field 7f races only two have won. Middle to high drawn and ridden off the pace hold sway.
At 1mile in large field races, again it is very difficult to make all. Hold up horses drawn close to either rail fair best. This information is for quickish ground in large fields. The form this year is hard to fathom and i will probably be keeping my money in my accounts as there is a fair bit of guesswork involved. I did mark a two year old winner from Newmarket as one to back here. If it is running i will put it up.
whiston01 I've had accounts but now I've cut back on my gambling don't need them. Don't think I'll watch a race at Royal Ascot. No interest. I'll watch the Derby that's the lot for me this flat season.
