In the early seventies i wrote in a magazine called Bredwinner run by a very good friend of mine called Eddie Wood. He used methods back then that was miles ahead of his time and he asked me to look at the Northern racing and also to put anything i thought was relevant into my piece. I was interested in the draw back then and i had a method in sprint handicaps that had great success. It was simple, back any horse drawn in the highest four stalls that was in the first four in the betting over 5 furlongs at Beverley and had at least 14 runners in it.. Many big wins happened and many forecasts and tricasts were won.
I worked for BSC, and myself and a friend decided to take bets. We had a lot of punters wanting to back with us as there were no tax on our bets. The rates in the betting shops were around 9%. There was also a bookie up at the Templeborough end but he didn't want the big bets and laid off with us. In 1978 -82 the average amount on with us was around £250 a day. You had to know what you were doing but in all those years we never had a pay out anywhere near our limit of £1500.
Today is a different kettle of fish. The advance of Betfair, computers, etc, etc. I tend to concentrate on the N.H season but i do not bet in the traditional way. I dutch, have 20/80's, straight win, each way and lay favourites, never multiples.. One thing i learned from my bookie days is you cannot win backing short price favourites on a regular basis or win using multiple bets, such as trebles, fourfolds, fivefolds etc.. You have to find a niche and forever look at what you are doing and changing with the way racing and betting is developing.
I will finish by commenting on Gwru's belief that Goshen could be a good bet for the champion hurdle. I use stats as one of my ways in. Since 1985 when See You Then won it as a 5 y.o we have had only 2 winners in the next 35 years as 5.y.old.. Katchit won in 2008 but would have been a well beaten second if Sizing Europe hadn't broken down when cantering over the field. Then in 2019 Espoir D'Allen won after Bouveur D'Air and Sharlah fell and the first four in the betting all under performed. It can be done and Goshen looks a useful prospect. If he had stood up his time would have been around 3 secs slower than the County Hurdle ran 40 minutes later. Now the winner of that a 5 y.old who is a massive improver might be one to keep an eye on when he steps up into grade one company. I will post a bit more if you want Gwru as i believe i know a little bit about this game.
whiston01 just seen your post, I rarely look on O/T Discussion. Be honest with you I've cut back on gambling but love the sport especially NH. I've always done better on NH so I concentrate on that now. I probably won't be back into horseracing now till next October 1st jump meeting of the season at Chepstow. I like Punchestown festival at the end of April if it's on but can no longer see it now it's on pay racing CH. Goshen was the one horse I took out of this years Cheltenham festival, was that far clear in the Triumph got to be one for next years CH hurdle. I've been into horseracing longer than I care to admit so hope I've learnt what works for me. I do look at the ratings they do tell you in most races what can't win then it's up to what you go on to find the winner. Hope we are all here when we come out of covid-19 horseracing can wait for now.
As i said in my post a 5.Y.O has to be exceptional or the race has to fall apart for one to win it. Goshen is an improver. Won his last three flat races by large margins i believe and has won his hurdle races very well. I just don't think he has beaten anything that could have got within 20 lengths of the champion hurdle winner. As i also said, his time in the Triumph would have put him around 12 lengths behind the County Hurdle winner Saint Roi. Goshen will improve and the stable rate him highly (never had a top class hurdler) but i fear he will be a bit short of the required standard to win a champion next season. Many thought Pentland Hills ( last years triumph and 4.y.o aintree winner) would go close in this years champion. Like many five year olds he fell a long way short.
I do a lot of studying about horse racing (mainly N.H now) and will share my thoughts on this page.
whiston01 Katchit won Ch h as a 5 yr old. The ill fated Our Connor I thought same as Goshen but failed to make the step up. Worries me in the case of Goshen if it's going to be a duel purpose horse when flat racing does return. See were we are when it runs again over hurdles. Keep safe all. Don't know when there'll be horseracing again in front of the public. Can't see big races on the flat being run behind closed doors but the powers that be make those decisions.
If you read my posts correctly Gwru, i said Katchit, Espoir D'Allen and See You Then are the only 5.Y.O's to have won the champion in the last 35 years. I also said Katchit would have been well beaten if Sizing Europe hadn't broken down when cantering over the field.
What about the virtual grand national? You tipped a King horse after last years Cheltenham festival. Not sure it has made the cut but i can't remember it's name. I was going to back Burrows Saint, Potters Corner, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy. However, i will not be wagering on what a computer says. I have backed Ballyoptic a couple of times but cannot see a computer picking him. Not for me a computer generated result. How about the rest of you.
whiston01 Welsh Grand National winners going on two that have also won the Grand National in the last 18 years so that's about a 2 in 18 chance of completing the double. Potters Corner wouldn't have got a penny of my money. Welsh is almost always run on heavy ground. Grand National not often testing ground. Don't know what happened to Kimberlite Candy in the virtual race cause it seemed to have a similar profile to previous winner One For Arthur. Would have loved to have took my chance with my two selections in an actual Grand National
Lol. Of course you would have loved to have took your chance with your selections in an actual grand national. it's all about keeping that inflated ego up. What you would have put if you had tipped the 1st,2nd and 5th from four selections in the virtual grand national god only knows. I will repeat what i said earlier, i believe i have forgot more than you know about horse racing.
You should have said this about Welsh National winners. You have to go back to 1905 to find the last Welsh National winner to go on to win at Aintree in the same season. Statistics are there to be broken. I will repeat one of your sayings Gwru. When you are on the shop floor taking around £250 a day in bets in the late 70's and early 80's you have to have your wits about you to stay afloat.
whiston01 reading your horseracing posts. Based on tipping winners I'm the proven governor on these sites. Last years Cheltenham on this site you were was here you know nobody could touch me. Went on MM this year tipping at Cheltenham cause there was an interest again they all agreed though they don't particularly like me I proved again with my 4 winners tipped out of 8 selections nobody can touch me. Start tipping winners in actual races before blowing your own trumpet.
I've done all that looking at the draw in flat races but in big fields, you've still got to find the winner. I do look at the ratings as I said will in most cases tell you what can't win but again you've still got to find the winner. I learnt about betting on the horses in my local pub back in the middle 70's onwards. Some proper racing men in there. I quickly learnt either wise up or you'll be going home early with empty pockets.
I've done now while October while Chepstow their 1st jump meeting of the season. I've got no interest now in flat racing. Got my reasons.
Like on most things you have not got a clue. Some of what you are saying is utter rubbish. In todays racing you do not have to find the winner. As for proper racing men in pubs. You are having a laugh. 98% of those lose money and that is who filled my pockets.
As for tipping in real racing. Well i wasn't blowing my own trumpet. I was stating what you would have said if you had tipped the 1st, 2nd and 5th from four selections. I have called you out before and i will again. If you remember you said Ladapo was useless. I said he would score at least 15 goals if he played enough games and we should have a wager, with the loser giving the money to a charity of choice. Come October put your bets up before racing and i will stand them. At the end of the season tot them up and whoever is losing pay the charity of the others choice.... Nobody can touch you. Lets see.
whiston01 I don't know what angle you are coming from. Are you with the bookmakers? I'm out to beat them. It's not just about horseracing for me my days in pubs with proper racing men now I look back were the best days. Some characters & couple of blokes one now dead total trust between us fair amount of money changing hands. Memories of Sea Pigeon Morley Street I knew before they won the Ch H they were destined to win that race. Been alot more horses in between & now same gone on to win Cheltenham festival races. Epatante when I saw it win xmas hurdle at Kempton knew it would be hard to beat in this years Ch H. Don't always get it right cause thought Defi Du Seuil couldn't be beaten in this years Ch C.
Ladapo? can score goals but a Roth U type of player battling player I'd say no. What gets me it's Tony Stewart says he runs a tight ship but nothing's said when Warney brings loans in like two wide men he brought in the January window bringing nothing to the side & letting Lamy go out on loan who was just coming through. Also Tilt a 3 1/2 year contract for a player of his age who weren't playing for Blackpool what waste of a wage. Why didn't he just bring Cooper back. But I don't know anything.
October is for me. I'm not putting no tips up on here. There's no interest it's a site of mostly living in Warney's wonderland. One tip I'd like to see Joey Barton our new manager start of next season whenever that will be.
Ok you had your chance. Btw i am not with the bookmakers but i do know how hard it is to win at betting horses (about 2% win at it). Try laying horses. With your experience you should be able to spot false favourites and lay them.
I like to share information and i am currently going over the four days of the Cheltenham festival. I have watched the first day several times (i am a subscriber to Racing Tv) and will watch the rest in the next few weeks.
Here is a horse i think will take high order next year as a novice chaser around 2m4f or further. ... Chantry House. He finished 3rd in the Supreme on ground plenty soft enough for him. He has a chaser written all over him. In the point to point field he was in front of Monkfish when he fell 3 out. I can see him being a Marsh or RSA candidate next season.
Two of my biggest fancies of the week was to lay Paisley Park (beat nothing and overrated) and Imperilal Aura to win the handicap on the first day. This was a horse bang in form, well handicapped and unexposed. His Lto performance got a Rpr rating of 153 yet was running off an OR of 143. I know its only a guide but he was improving and well in. Only 5/1 in a handicap but possibly still a bit of value.
You said you like to start off at Chepstow in October. Here is a race to take notice of then for the rest of the season. The Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle on the Saturday of the Chepstow meeting. This race produced 14 winners up to the season finishing this year, 19 winners in 2018 and 22 winners in 2017. It's a hot race so get your tracker ready.
whiston01 I was in my local club for the opening race of the meeting though the Cheltenham roar lost some of it's gusto with a false start. Didn't take nothing out of that race. Only Goshen I've took out of that meeting I see having more than a chance of coming good at next year's festival. I haven't got Racing tv so 4 winners I selected I'd seen run before, 2 of those were Irish Samcro & the Gold cup winner but seen them previously. My other winning selections were Epatante & Easysland. I'm selective there only look at certain races. I'm not into laying bets. I'm just a put bets on at the bookies single bets now if they win they win if they don't so be it.
October at Chepstow like the 4 yr old limited handicap 2 mile hrd a touch lower than triumph hrd standard but throws the odd decent winner up, Silver Streak for one. Later that month a decent quality 2 mile hrd at Kempton. Those two races tell me the NH season is getting into full swing.
This years Cheltenham festival is where you will find a lot of next years festival winners. Envoi Allen, Champ, Poitologue, Sire Du Berlais, Lisnagar Oscar, Al Boom Photo and Indefatigable all ran ok at last years festival before winning at this. Add to that Epatante,Samcro and a load of placed horses who ran well and it should be your first starting point for a lot of the races. I have discussed Goshen previously and feel he has a lot to do to threaten in next years champion. He is an improver but this years four year olds look a poor bunch to me. Easyland is a horse that could run up a sequence. However, my heart would be in my mouth if i put some hard earned down on that jockey. The stables of Elliott and Mullins currently have the ammo to go to war with. At this years festival they had half of the winners. Their novices or just out of novice class with Cheltenham festival back form is also a way in.
I had the pleasure of going to the Cheltenham gold cup once. In 1975 when Ten Up carrying the colours of Arkle won it. A great day but a long journey home on a very slow and over heating Rileys bus.
Been to the festival once 1990 when Barnbrook Again won the Ch C, was on. Backed 1st two winners that day. You had to high up to see anything, leaving the course was should imagine like leaving what was then a 1st division ground. Not used to those sort of crowds watching Roth U. I bought a suit to go there with, got there true quite a few of the Irish there had donkey jackets on!
Easysland only a 6 yr old could it be a Gold Cup horse? I didn't see much else taking from this year's festival that could be.
The cheltenham Gold cup has to be one of my favourite races. Captain Christy who won it as a 7.y.o. novice in 1974 is one of my all time favourites. He beat the previous years winner The Dikler and went on to slam Pendil in the same years King George and beat Bula some 30 lengths in the 1975 King George. He suffered a leg problem after that which just about finished his career. He used to take hurdles and fences home with him but was one of the all time greats.
This years Gold Cup was won for a second time by Al Boom Photo. I am not sure how good the form is as it was run at a slow pace and it contained a lot of non stayers imo. Monalee, kemboy, Delta Work, Clan Des Obeaux, Lostintranslation all would be better at 3miles rather than 3m 2+f. I backed Santini 20/80 staking and he looked slow to me but in a true run gold cup could be dangerous. Next year we should have Minella Indo, Allaho and hopefully Native River to put some pace into the race. Hopefully the forgotten horse Topofthegame should also be in the line up. I can see next years race being much stronger and feel Al Boom has a difficult job emulating Best Mate. How Champ won the RSA i will never know. He jumped awfully but managed to get up close home. He would be a big player if he could jump but i have a feeling his jumping will get worse rather than better. Easyland has a massive task taking on Gold Cup horses but is only six so has plenty of time. Lets hope they all stay sound and line up next season.
This year's Gold cup was an exciting finish, standard? I was on the winner stable jockey chose to ride it that was good enough for me. We were spoiled with Kayto star & Denman. The Dikler was 1st Gold cup I watched 73. Been some great winners in my time of that race. Burrough Hill Lad was a bull of a horse one of my favorite winners of the race. Next year's race I can't have Champ. I've said only one I can see coming through it's Easysland.
Going back to 73 I was on Comedy of Errors in the Ch H. What a time for winners of that race Lanzarote Comedy of Errors again then some of the greats Night Nurse Monksfield Sea Pigion later Morley Street was a fan.
I'm going Goshen Easysland Ch H Gd C double next year my thinking now but see if they get there in those races first.
-- Edited by gwru on Thursday 9th of April 2020 06:25:07 PM
-- Edited by gwru on Friday 10th of April 2020 09:51:50 AM
Goshen 5/1 for Champion (a bit short imo) and Easyland 33/1 for Gold Cup. A fiver double wins you over a grand. I would be surprised if Easyland doesn't run in the cross country but for a fiver is it worth chancing? Your call.
What's a fiver? Money I'm saving not drinking ect... by time we've done could add 2 noughts to that. I wouldn't miss a fiver. It's not winning a thousand with me if those two won Ch H/ Gd C it shows I'm still in front of the game.
I know you only think Goshen and Easyland are worth looking at going forward from this years Cheltenham festival Gwru. However, if history is to repeat itself then one race is certainly worth looking at for future Cheltenham festival winners. That race is the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle. As you know this is a stiff stamina test for novices. Don't just look at the first three in the race, although they provide plenty of future winners and placed horses but look at the record of horses unplaced in it. In the last ten years unplaced horses have gone on to win twelve races at future Cheltenham festivals. These have included Cape Tribulation, Bostons Angel, Teaforthree, Paisley Park, Blacklion,Native River and this years stayers hurdle winner that went off at 50/1 Lisnagar Oscar..
This years race looked a strong race and i will follow the front four closely. However, some unplaced horses also caught my eye with the future cheltenham festivals in mind. Janidil, Lieutenant Rocco and The Wolf could all be future winners . i have noted them down and wait to see what the trainers do with them. The key to this is. The trainers felt they were strong enough to run in a tough race for novices. As they mature staying trips and tough tracks bring the best out of them.
