S8Miller wrote:

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Haha Brinny, only a remainer could put a negative spin on good news post Brexit, I guess it's a case of lose we lose and win we lose. Whatever the markets do, the fact is that nobody could have predicted its reaction to Brexit, not leading economists, not the IMF, not the WTO note even Kempo for Christ's sake.

What has proved tangible, however, is Britain's ability to protect itself from economic shocks. Thank goodness that the Euroscpetics won the day on tighter EU integration. Thank goodness that the ERM failed so dramatically and we pulled back from joining the Euro. Otherwise we could be like Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal ... trapped in a nightmarish doom loop of poor economic performance without the means nor the power to do anything about it.

For me personally the choice was a simple one. A vote to remain was a vote to endorse the status quo. A vote to remain was a vote to dampen down calls for significant EU reform. A vote to remain was a vote to provide an unequivocal mandate for the drive towards a federal superstate. A vote to remain was a vote to further ensconce the power of our EU leaders; the global banks, big business and the neoliberal elite. A vote to remain was a vote to legitimise the treatment of the citizens of Greece. A vote to remain was a vote to accept that austerity and high unemployment for Southern Europe states was an inevitable consequence of EU fiscal policy. A vote to remain is a vote to accept that Britain is no longer a sovereign nation capable of making its own decisions in the interests of its citizens.

Personally, the direction the EU is going scares the bejesus out of me. My political instincts are for small government and self determination and I'm afraid the EU is now the antithesis of that ideal and something I could never, ever support no matter what the price.

By voting out we have at least engendered the chance that change in the EU might actually happen and that its leaders will perhaps reflect on the result and the course on which it has embarked. Britain in Europe has never been a marriage made in heaven and in my opinion it is better for all concerned that we pull out all together and go our own way and leave the remaining EU states to do what is right for them.

-- Edited by S8Miller on Monday 4th of July 2016 10:57:27 AM

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I'm a bit old fashioned, S8, in that I tend to wait for some good news before celebrating it.  Which good news did you have in mind?  I did mention that the fall in the pound would benefit exporters, but that has to be offset against price inflation, particularly on fuel.  You can't have one without the other.

I'll leave the blind optimism to the hardcore Leave voters.

I'm reminded of a Caribbean holiday some years ago, when the island that I was on was struck by a hurricane.  The preparations were very impressive with ground floor windows being boarded up and all the hotel residents being spoken to about personal safety and procedure.  Even the poolside furniture was carefully stacked together and then dropped into the pool, presumably to stop it being blown away.  A harbour nearby was suddenly full of yachts and small boats taking refuge.  That is what happening at the moment in the economy.  The FTSE100 is rising and government bonds are being bought up by investors who are taking refuge from the risk they now see in the smaller more UK-centric companies that make up the FTSE 250.  The pound is tumbling and price of gold is soaring as people bail out of our currency.

Now I suppose the action taken by the hotel staff was good news in that they were taking steps to protect their guests and keep the hotel in order, but I was more concerned by the knowledge that they were doing it because they feared the coming storm.

You think I was a Remain voter.  In truth, I did not know how I was going to vote until I was standing in the polling booth, as I could see truths and attractions in both sides of the argument.  He has been slated for it, but Corbyn was just about the most honest of politicians when he said he was 7.5 on a scale of 1 to 10 for remaining.  The fact of the matter is that there were competing arguments as opposed to an overwhelming case for either side of the debate.  I think that is reflected in the very narrow 'victory' margin involved.

I recognise the validity of a number of the points that you make (I balk at the talk of neoliberal elites and also think that Greece is merely paying for the decisions of her sovereign government and the electorate that put them there), but I can also see the potential for very difficult  times ahead as we try to secure trade deals with countries and trading blocs who are going to seek the best deal for them and have the ace up the sleeve of the UK needing to make deals quickly.  We will also have to deal with the consequences of the uncertainty that will exist until those deals were struck.

I joined this thread because of what I see as a wholly unrealistic and un-tempered optimism on the part of the Leavers on here.  That was a mistake.  Sentiment is a very important factor in the economy (it's one of the reasons why economic predictions are so difficult to get right) and optimists should be encouraged to try to ward off the risk of the country slipping into recession.  I hope that you will spend generously as part of your celebrations.  Alternatively, you could invest your cash in FTSE250 companies as a gesture of support and an expression of your confidence. 

 

-- Edited by Brinnie Boy on Tuesday 5th of July 2016 08:44:50 PM

Investing is a very personal decision. You must firstly appreciate that the value of most investments can go down as well as up, that you don't know that you don't know (by which I mean that even the best run of companies can run into unforeseen difficulties that adversely affects their value) and that you shouldn't gamble what you can't afford to lose.

The FTSE100 is rising becasue the large multinational companies there are likely to be safer and more stable if the economy runs into heavy turbulence. Within the FTSE100, however, there are companies that have taken a proper kicking - banks, holiday companies and airlines have fared very badly.

Where you should put your money depends on your approach to risk. If you truly believe that the economy will recover quickly and that the markets have overreacted to the vote and are not scared of risk, one of the sectors that I have described above would be an option, but you'd have to be very brave. I don't mind a bit of risk, but I'd go nowhere near those sectors for the time being.

BP and Shell have done very well since the vote (although, strictly speaking, Shell is Anglo-Dutch). If you'd bought into Shell on 24th June, you'd be up by around 12% by now, but how long that continues remains to be seen. You would also have to bear in mind that the oil sector is, of course, very sensitive to changes in the price of oil. A significant slow down in the world economy and a consequent fall in the oil price would see a rapid fall in those stocks.

A reasonably safe bet in troubled times? I'd look at one of the big pharmaceutical companies - GlaxoSmithKline or AstraZeneca. They trade largely in dollars, are not dependent upon the UK economy and the ageing population of the world is going to rely upon drug companies to keep them well. I really can't predict how long it would take to make 20% out of one of them -how long is a piece of string - but I'd be disappointed if it wasn't possible within three years if their dividends are taken into account.

Nothing within this post is intended as advice.

A lot of understandable interest in stocks and shares and global economy right now, which hitherto has been largely ignored in debates on this board. Clearly the leave vote has intensified interest. Personally, I know little of the great and the good in high finance and am unqualified to discuss such matters in depth. However, I suspect any downward trend will lead to shouts of 'Now look what you've done'. The truth is the stocks and shares market fluctuate, up and down all the time, its a casino after all, based on a promise, my word is my bond, you win some you lose some. An earthquake, an air controllers strike, a new oil field larger than Saudi Arabia's discovered in Mexborough, a war in Iraq, or a quiet little whisper in someones ear. All will have a baring on how the markets will react and the Brexit vote will of course have an influence. But when the dust settles everything will calmly and quietly go back to normal, as it always does. The continual rise and fall of the Tower of Babel.

I have watched and listened in recent weeks with interest. People have reacted to stock market movements and have pointed to rises as evidence of a positive reaction. Towdlad is right - markets move over time based on all sorts of different factors. Brinnie Boy is also right - the EU was and is a flawed institution and there were some sound reasons for wanting to leave it (although economics played only a small part in how many people voted). But we are going to be impacted by what happens in the EU whether we are in it or not.

I feel like I am watching a bus load of smiling people drive towards a cliff edge. I will stand to be corrected and if I am still posting on here in two years time I will gladly hold my hand up if I am wrong, but the consequences of Brexit in the months to come will be a fairly sharp down turn in economic activity, probably a move into recession, the pound continuing to take a battering and an emergency budget or two featuring further sustained austerity. Anyone who thinks that leaving the biggest free market trading area which happens to be on our doorstep can have any other effect is kidding themselves. If this government's idea of sharing the pain of austerity is anything like we have seen previously, the good people of Sunderland, South Wales and indeed Rotherham who voted to leave because they don't like what they see happening around them can get ready for plenty more of the same.

The lack of housing stock, waiting times for medical attention, lack of employment opportunity and so on were blamed on immigration and the EU, but in truth they are the consequence of a lack of investment from successive governments who have watched the gap between rich and poor grow wider and wider. The lack of public services doesn't bother people who can afford not to use them. The same trend will continue. Ironically, the EU was the only institution that made any effort at all to redistribute wealth in this country - South Yorkshire benefited significantly and received far more EU money than we paid in. The savings made from not paying in to the EU will not even begin to plug the gap of falling tax take. The lie that these funds would be reinvested as bonus spending on public services will be exposed as such.

The short stretch of water between us and our neighbours will not help us one bit if mainland Europe descends into chaos while we stand by feeling smug about the fact that we are no longer part of it. We are still massively dependant on trading with them, albeit now very much on their terms, and we have little or now say in how they now deal with any challenges that the continent may face.

I couldn't be more convinced that we have made a very bad mistake.

They are going to be using foodbanks even more now that the fall in the pound has started to push up food and fuel prices. You don't need a stock portfolio to have to eat.

Austerity has nothing to do with being 'overrun by foreigners'. As Theresa May said in her first PMQs - Labour call it austerity, the Tories call it living within our means.

Austerity was failed exercise in dressing up "living within in our means" to punish the poorest and neediest, who lost out more than anyone else. Public services are decimated, borrowing has gone up and we've sacrificed the potential of the young for it - now with 15% unemployment.

The media portrayal of foreigners being given an easy ride - free houses, money etc. does actually make people in poorer areas think that the reason things are hard is because foreigners come and take the money, jobs, benefits and homes - hence the UKIP successes in Rotherham.

I didn't say austerity was caused or is actually linked to being 'overrun by foreigners', however, using this (as the Daily Mail etc. does) is a good excuse to continue to persecute the poorest and deflect from the fact that it was a financial experiment aimed at ensuring the rich get richer and the poor pay for it.

Teresa May has hopefully ended it, but we'll see - she's a politician so probably going to say one thing and do another.

Also, noted that "experts" are now saying that Brexit might not be the bad thing they previously, "expertly" said it would be.