95 percent of my friends voted leave. All wanted control back. All wanted out of a club we never voted into.
None voted with xenophobic leanings although control of numbers of immigrants was important.
In my opinion remain voters were institutionalised and were suffering from mass Stockholm syndrome. The establishment failed to see that you can't hypnotise the workers.
Some of the euphoria on here needs tempering a little.
The stock market isn't flying. The FTSE100 is, but that's only part of the stock market. The FTSE250 is still well below the pre vote level. The reason? The FTSE is largely made of multinationals some of which are headquartered in the UK, but have very little exposure here. Take Shell, BP, AstraZeneca and GSK for example. Their British operations are but a small part of their business and much of their business is traded in dollars and outside the UK. The FTSE250 is made up of smaller companies that are likely to trade heavily within the UK. Market sentiment towards them is much less enthusiastic.
Nobody is mentioning the devaluation of the pound. That is going to be hitting the pockets of consumers very soon. The costs of holidays will be the starkest example, but oil and refined products are traded in dollars and you will be noticing price hikes at the pumps shortly. The UK cannot feed itself and you will also be seeing the price of Dutch tomatoes and Spanish Broccoli rising. Bread is largely produced from imported wheat so the same applies. These effects are going to hit the less well-off particularly hard and the performance of the FTSE100 will be of little comfort to them.
The devaluation of the pound will assist British exporters, which is another reason why the share value of some companies has risen. Someone mentioned Greece – part of their problem was that their currency – the Euro – did not devalue when they ran into their fiscal crisis.
Carney expressing the view that interest rate cuts will be needed was not an expression of confidence in the economy. It was an indication that he feels that it is going to need assistance if it is not to stall and was also an attempt to further depress the value of the pound in order to assist exporters.
It should be remembered that we don't know what the actual effect of Brexit will be, because it hasn’t happened and probably won’t for two years at least. I’ll certainly be taking my profits and moving my investments into American stocks if it starts to look like we will be denied access to the Single Market.
As a one time steelworker, made redundant because we could buy it cheaper from Italy, why should I care if a few bankers might become surplus to requirements. It's funny how all the things that the working class do are always sacrificed for progress and capitalism, but once we hit the financial sector it's a travesty. Have they ever visited a pit village that loses its pit? We should also ask what do these people actually create??? They gamble rich people's money on a betting area called the stock market which can somehow keep delivering profit from nothing ad infinitum. Then greed and corruption makes it go pop and they need to poor to bail them out. Bring on the chaos.
And you can add to that list NY the fishing industry which has probably suffered from the EU more than any other. They used to say for every fishing job at sea there were six on shore. Those old enough may remember the huge fishing fleets of Hull, Grimsby, Fleetwood, Yarmouth and at just about every sea port around the UK. most of which have now disappeared or are only a pale shadow of their former pre EU years.
Despite all that, 70% of all fish products consumed in the EU today are from British waters, but only 14% of that is allowed to be caught by British fishermen. Would any sane society surrender its fishing rights and destroy a profitable industry with such nonchalance.
Why should we care if the banking sector is damaged by Brexit? Because it is the most important sector in the British economy and contributes vast amounts to the country's tax revenues and current account income. That's surely quite a good reason?
-- Edited by Brinnie Boy on Saturday 2nd of July 2016 09:57:42 AM
-- Edited by Brinnie Boy on Saturday 2nd of July 2016 09:58:04 AM
And this very good article: clear of too much Jargon and reclaiming the historic roots of Euro scepticism would pretty much sum up the position I take. Of course,Sickly suggested that if this is what people really voted for he would;d have maybe voted to leave too instead of his abstention, which, I must say might have been founded on a misunderstanding as trade with NZ is one of the issues he would have been voting on as well as that of any kin he has. Anyway, firstly the argument of Sickly like many others is nothing more than the belief that the apparent uneducated and poor and "uncultured" will only and always vote on what is a very complex situation be reducing it to a black and white beliefs. One need only look to the expressions of European ****geneity to notice the exact same argument with no less a background of uneducated and uncultured neo liberals to void this argument absolutely .
Amazingly, most of the social justice warriors dont have a clue about the true philosophy of globalisation and how this has already impacted on our daily life and given another 2 decades would completely destroy and polarise our nation. What is very sad is that the neo liberals continue to label the argument in black and white terms, while totally misunderstanding how very far removed from their own social agenda the European movement really is. If they could notice the total lack of social justice (democracy) and imperialism and aggressive moves towards both the east and eventually I believe the United States then they would be drowning in their crocodile tears as they bleat like infants and seek to dismiss and even overturn the very basis of their much demanded freedoms won and maintained through violence and death and much sacrifice by previous and present generations of real social warriors.
How did this odd state of affairs come about...Im afraid its quite simple: Too much materialism has clouded the minds and produced a dissociative state . They wander around in privilege and adorn themselves with technology and freedoms and comfort only dreamt of in some eschatological fantasy and yet still claim to be committed to deep understanding, social values, equality, fairness, the protection of minority's. Well, at the expense of the very earth that gives them ground to stand upon as it is raped while they look on with feign disgust and parade with banners and badges-marching for the protection of their way of life-their way is the way of the fluffy multi-sensory all singing and dancing tech age where they can be protected from the reality of global destruction and an event so polarising that the inevitable destruction of civilisation would follow. Im afraid we all suffer from paranoid thinking to some degree and our very existence seems to rest on the destruction of others. There is no changing this. However, a mature debate must take hold in this country. We must ask what we have and why we have it. we must ask what we truly believe in and what are the highest ideals we should continue to strive for. I beleive if we did this then much of the mud slinging would turn to reluctant agreement. However, to do this one must accept the very raw and savage world around us and stop popping the happy pills and anaesthetising ourselves against the future .
Excellent post ian and the link making revealing reading, which raises points that I alluded to on some of my previous posts on this thread. The EU is fast becoming the Orwellian state of Eurasia we already have thought police, two minute hate, (against the leave voters) there are so many parallels to '1984' its frightening.
Some of the euphoria on here needs tempering a little.
The stock market isn't flying. The FTSE100 is, but that's only part of the stock market. The FTSE250 is still well below the pre vote level. The reason? The FTSE is largely made of multinationals some of which are headquartered in the UK, but have very little exposure here. Take Shell, BP, AstraZeneca and GSK for example. Their British operations are but a small part of their business and much of their business is traded in dollars and outside the UK. The FTSE250 is made up of smaller companies that are likely to trade heavily within the UK. Market sentiment towards them is much less enthusiastic.
Nobody is mentioning the devaluation of the pound. That is going to be hitting the pockets of consumers very soon. The costs of holidays will be the starkest example, but oil and refined products are traded in dollars and you will be noticing price hikes at the pumps shortly. The UK cannot feed itself and you will also be seeing the price of Dutch tomatoes and Spanish Broccoli rising. Bread is largely produced from imported wheat so the same applies. These effects are going to hit the less well-off particularly hard and the performance of the FTSE100 will be of little comfort to them.
The devaluation of the pound will assist British exporters, which is another reason why the share value of some companies has risen. Someone mentioned Greece – part of their problem was that their currency – the Euro – did not devalue when they ran into their fiscal crisis.
Carney expressing the view that interest rate cuts will be needed was not an expression of confidence in the economy. It was an indication that he feels that it is going to need assistance if it is not to stall and was also an attempt to further depress the value of the pound in order to assist exporters.
It should be remembered that we don't know what the actual effect of Brexit will be, because it hasn’t happened and probably won’t for two years at least. I’ll certainly be taking my profits and moving my investments into American stocks if it starts to look like we will be denied access to the Single Market.
Welcome Brinnie, nice to see you getting involved in the debate.
No euphoria from me on market reaction, I fully appreciate that gains can turn in an instant. Fully understand that interest rate cut would be a tool in response to any threat of market contraction. Also fully understand that Osborne's announcement on austerity means longer to get the balance between borrowing and spending and finally get back in surplus.
However, this is not what we were told would happen is it? We were told taxes would rise, spending would be cut, interest rates would have to go up, markets would crash. Quite frankly, apart from a mild hicup the doomsday mongers and economic experts have been seen to be wrong yet again.
The FTSE is at 12 month highs. The 250, while still down, is still trading higher than some of the previous lows this year and taking a longer term view the Brexit dip is barely even noticeable. While the £:$ rate is down I grant you, the £:€ is still at 1.20 which is a rate we could have only imagined just a couple of years ago when we were almost at parity with the Euro and I didn't hear any doom mongering at that time.
So while you are correct in much of your assessment, I think we have to take a longer term view and in my opinion (and I appreciate there are those that disagree with me and that's fine) but I consider that any short term pain will be a price that is well worth paying for longer term gain.
I remain very optimistic with the opportunities that Britain (free of its EU shackles) has. I am excited about our ability to trade openly with the rest of the world and I believe that we will prosper and grow and look back at this moment and think what a bloody lucky escape we had.
The banking industry is the most corrupt of them all and was let off scot free after completely f***ing up the world through greed in 2007. Just how many bankers went to jail over that? Please don't hand wring over the dip in today's odds on the stock market when the whole austerity movement and financial crash was caused by them in the first place. As for paying tax - the only people that really pay tax are the working class who don't have accountants and all manner of fancy offshore tax avoidance schemes to make sure they don't "legally" have to. Let's spin the wheel on this Brexit and see where we land.
Some of the euphoria on here needs tempering a little.
The stock market isn't flying. The FTSE100 is, but that's only part of the stock market. The FTSE250 is still well below the pre vote level. The reason? The FTSE is largely made of multinationals some of which are headquartered in the UK, but have very little exposure here. Take Shell, BP, AstraZeneca and GSK for example. Their British operations are but a small part of their business and much of their business is traded in dollars and outside the UK. The FTSE250 is made up of smaller companies that are likely to trade heavily within the UK. Market sentiment towards them is much less enthusiastic.
Nobody is mentioning the devaluation of the pound. That is going to be hitting the pockets of consumers very soon. The costs of holidays will be the starkest example, but oil and refined products are traded in dollars and you will be noticing price hikes at the pumps shortly. The UK cannot feed itself and you will also be seeing the price of Dutch tomatoes and Spanish Broccoli rising. Bread is largely produced from imported wheat so the same applies. These effects are going to hit the less well-off particularly hard and the performance of the FTSE100 will be of little comfort to them.
The devaluation of the pound will assist British exporters, which is another reason why the share value of some companies has risen. Someone mentioned Greece – part of their problem was that their currency – the Euro – did not devalue when they ran into their fiscal crisis.
Carney expressing the view that interest rate cuts will be needed was not an expression of confidence in the economy. It was an indication that he feels that it is going to need assistance if it is not to stall and was also an attempt to further depress the value of the pound in order to assist exporters.
It should be remembered that we don't know what the actual effect of Brexit will be, because it hasn’t happened and probably won’t for two years at least. I’ll certainly be taking my profits and moving my investments into American stocks if it starts to look like we will be denied access to the Single Market.
nice post...
but, the last bit is slightly disingenuous. Most people dont have assets that are worth transferring from one piggy bank to another in their own homes, let alone across international financial barriers. There is the divide Im afraid.
A lot of Brexiters dont care for the economic incentive so much-not that they are stupid to think it isnt important but its is less so against the democratic movement we feel deserves sacrifice.
-- Edited by ian on Saturday 2nd of July 2016 05:11:48 PM
Carey has mentioned quantatitive easing and hinted at a rate cut. Both have an impact on the GBP exchange rate. If he had left it alone it would have been a more true reflection of the impact of Brexit. It's almost a manufactured fail.
The Ftse 100 is up.
The Ftse 250 is as high as it was in January.
Fact is Armageddon didn't turn up and to quote 2 remainers.... The economic argument is no argument.
FTSE 250 down by only 5%. Nowhere near the drop expected.
The pound hasn't fallen as far as expected and is on a par with 2010 levels.
What was the drop expected for the FTSE250? What was the expected fall for the pound?
I can't recall any predictions of what would follow a Leave vote. The economists, businessmen and politicians who supported remain with economic arguments were predicting what would follow a Brexit, which hasn't happened yet. One of the reasons that the markets have bounced back is that they were caught by surprise by the outcome of the vote and ran around like headless chickens before realising that - actually - nothing much had changed and nothing would for some time.
The point is that we don't know what a Brexit will look like, particularly in relation to the trade arrangement that the UK will have with the EU. Until we do, we can't possibly predict an outcome for the economy.
Even if the pound hasn't fallen as far as it was apparently expected to, it's still going to have a real impact upon the less well-off. A family that was just managing to make ends meet on the 23rd June are necessarily unlikely to be able to so when fuel and food prices begin to rise over the next few weeks.
S8Miller wrote: We were told taxes would rise, spending would be cut, interest rates would have to go up, markets would crash. Quite frankly, apart from a mild hicup the doomsday mongers and economic experts have been seen to be wrong yet again.
The FTSE is at 12 month highs. The 250, while still down, is still trading higher than some of the previous lows this year and taking a longer term view the Brexit dip is barely even noticeable. While the £:$ rate is down I grant you, the £:€ is still at 1.20 which is a rate we could have only imagined just a couple of years ago when we were almost at parity with the Euro and I didn't hear any doom mongering at that time.
A rise in taxes, a cut in spending, an increase in interest rates and a market crash all remain perfectly possible when Brexit happens. There was a range of views amongst economists and we won't know which, if any, of them got it right until it does.
The FTSE100 is at a 12 month high for the reasons that I have explained. The remainder of the market isn't..
I don't think anyone is doom mongering about the current level of the pound, but it will have an impact upon the real economy of what goes on within people's pockets, with the less well off noticing it more than others. You may recall a lot of talk about fuel poverty a few years ago. That eased in part because of the fall in world energy prices and in part because of a strengthening pound. Clearly that will now be partially reversed.
Exporting companies will do well out of a lower pound although that effect will be tempered if they rely heavily upon imported components or raw materials.
Carey has mentioned quantatitive easing and hinted at a rate cut. Both have an impact on the GBP exchange rate. If he had left it alone it would have been a more true reflection of the impact of Brexit. It's almost a manufactured fail.
The Ftse 100 is up.
The Ftse 250 is as high as it was in January.
Fact is Armageddon didn't turn up and to quote 2 remainers.... The economic argument is no argument.
Carey has to do his job. The pound fell by around 2% in response to his comments, the rest of the fall is attributable to market sentiment following Brexit. If the fall in the pound is manufactured then so is the rise in stock market that also followed his comments.
Well I appreciate we have to look at the markets and I wont be surprised in the least if its the markets who dictate (emphasis on the word DICTATE) that we do not leave the EU. It wont matter about democracy or what the people want its always about what the markets, the establishment the media barrons, share prices and the banks want. We're only wanted to pay out taxes, because most of those above mentioned dont. ..........All while we're in the EU.
We've seen it all before; mass unemployment of 20%+ and a mortgage rate of 13% plus the repossessions, hopelessness , despair destruction of our manufacturing industries, with the industrial heartlands of Britain layed waste and of course the war, under the Thatcher regime, and that was while we were in the EU.
Lets not forget the betrayal of multimillionaire socialist Tony Blair who carried on the Thatcherite experiment by pandering to the markets and the Murdoch empire, and his oh so longed for desire to join the Euro, oh and the war. Lets not forget Mr Brown who while chancellor raided our pensions making us have to work longer to enjoy retirement while they looked after their own pensions and are able to retire in their 50's, and then flogged off most of our gold reserves, because the banks were draining the economy. All while we were in the EU.
And let us not forget the banks the bastions of society who gambled and swindled with the country's assets and became bankrupt, to such an extent that the now so called uneducated working class had to bail them out with approx £27,000 per household. ..All while we were in the EU
Lets not forget the wholesale sell off of the countries assets, British Gas, Water Authorities, BT, Royal Mail, British Rail, Electricity generation, British Steel, elderly care homes and watch out NHS....the list goes on, until we the British people have nothing, absolutely nothing except total disenfranchisement. Of course we can still have these things...if we can pay for them while they run cartels and rig the prices...All while we were in the EU.
And now lets not forget Austerity, who can forget austerity, because 'we're all in it together' arn't we ? Well some of us are more in it together than others. The politicians, (in Westminster and Brussels) banks and financiers dont seem to be suffering austerity although they caused it through their reckless cavalier attitude, and its still going on. Using the tax payers bail out dosh to continue to fund huge lottery win bonuses instead of lending to industry and small business to kick start the economy......... All while we're in the EU.
So you see it wont make much difference to ordinary folk, we're already in the brown stuff all the above have seen to that. The country has been stripped bare. so it really wont matter what happens, only this time we'll be out of the EU (well not really, its only pretend, not until we invoke clause 50), but we will be in charge. We will be able to make our own choices, even if we have to go down fighting for a return to democratic accountability.
P.S And lets not forget the 3.7 million children (children's Society figures) living in poverty in 21st century EU member state of Britain. The worst rates in the industrialised world. And of course mustn't forget that a great many of our people use banks....food banks. Britain in the EU 2016, More of the same please.. No thank you, if we have to fall on the sword, lets not be pushed by unelected Brussels vultures .
You seem to be forgetting towdlad that your out vote still gives us a Tory government albeit one in dissaray.
Leaving the EU will not help the negative events that you outline.
We are now in a situation that we either negotiate a free trade agreement with free movement of labour and it should not escape anyone's notice that it is exactly what we had but without any input on EU decision meetings.
The alternative is end free movement of people and have an economic disaster.
You may hate banks and bankers but they have been severely hit when already under pressure and this will have an impact on everyone.
A market crash could be the catalyst for a doomsday scenario of banking failures which would be disastrous for the economy even though some may understandably rejoice at bankers losing their jobs.
The surprising upward movement of the FTSE makes me very nervous and I would suggest that it may be riding high for a fall but we will have to see.
It seems incredible to me,even with a referendum vote that a government would choose against all the top economists advice to lead us out of the EU.
I suspect that behind the scenes some manoeuvring is going on to put a stop to this and I hope so.
I would fully understand out voters being outraged but to have a government knowingly leading us into economic disaster is unthinkable.
The only compromise is free trade linked with free movement and that makes the vote a nonsense as ending free movement was the main driving force for the out vote.
The hard truth will soon set in when prices start to rise and job losses begin.
Don't rest too easy as this is the calm before the storm.
Well I appreciate we have to look at the markets and I wont be surprised in the least if its the markets who dictate (emphasis on the word DICTATE) that we do not leave the EU. It wont matter about democracy or what the people want its always about what the markets, the establishment the media barrons, share prices and the banks want. We're only wanted to pay out taxes, because most of those above mentioned dont. ..........All while we're in the EU.
I have no doubt that we will leave the EU. It would be political suicide for any politician to go back on the referendum. The only way that it could be avoided would be by holding a further referendum and I find it hard to see how that could be engineered.
The only issues now are the timing and terms of our exit. We don't know either. The question of the shape of a Brexit was neatly sidestepped at every turn by Leave campaigners.
The trouble with the referendum was the manner in which the two campaigns were run. The Remain camp ran a negative campaign - raising fears about leaving as opposed to making a positive case for membership; the Leave camp ran a 'dog whistle' campaign consisting of some obfustication i.e by asserting that and end of free movement was an inevitable outcome of a Brexit and some downright dishonesty such as the ludicrous £350m per to the NHS bus adverts that nobody seems to want to own up to responsibility for.
I don't agree with all of your description of the travails of the working man under the EU. Whatever has happened to him, he is far better off than when we joined the EU. I'm not saying that flows from membership, but I'm not convinced that it can be discounted.
