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Topic: The run in - how many points will it take?

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The run in - how many points will it take?

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Rotherham 

3712.03.2016Derby Countyhome   
3819.03.2016Ipswich Townaway   
3902.04.2016Leeds Unitedhome   
4005.04.2016Bristol Cityaway   
4109.04.2016Milton Keynes Donsaway   
4216.04.2016Nottingham Foresthome   
4319.04.2016Huddersfield Townhome   
4423.04.2016Wolverhampton Wndrsaway   
4530.04.2016Blackburn Rovershome   
4607.05.2016Hull Cityaway

MK Dons

3712.03.2016Hull Cityaway   
3819.03.2016Brighton and Hove Ahome   
3902.04.2016Fulhamaway   
4005.04.2016Wolverhampton Wndrshome   
4109.04.2016Rotherham Unitedhome   
4216.04.2016Preston North Endaway   
4319.04.2016Sheffield Wednesdayaway   
4423.04.2016Brentfordhome   
4530.04.2016Ipswich Townaway   
4607.05.2016Nottingham Foresthome

Bristol City

 

3712.03.2016Fulhamaway   
3819.03.2016Bolton Wanderershome   
3902.04.2016Hull Cityaway   
4005.04.2016Rotherham Unitedhome   
4109.04.2016Sheffield Wednesdayhome   
4216.04.2016Brentfordaway   
4319.04.2016Derby Countyhome   
4423.04.2016Blackburn Roversaway   
4530.04.2016Huddersfield Townhome   
4607.05.2016Queens Park Rangersaway

Fulham

3712.03.2016Bristol Cityhome   
3819.03.2016Birmingham Cityaway   
3902.04.2016Milton Keynes Donshome   
4005.04.2016Preston North Endaway   
4109.04.2016Cardiff Cityhome   
4215.04.2016Brighton and Hove Aaway   
4319.04.2016Ipswich Townaway   
4423.04.2016Nottingham Foresthome   
4530.04.2016Brentfordaway   
4607.05.2016Bolton Wanderershome 

 

MK Dons and Bristol City's run in's look very tough with 3 teams to play who are going for automatic or play off places.  MK Dons will be hoping to take maximum points from us and Fulham.  And Bristol will be looking to games against us, Fulham and Bolton to get the points they need to stay up.  

 

Of the bottom six it is Fulham that are on the downward spiral only managing 3 wins in their last 22 games!  Their run in looks the easiest of the relegation rivals but with the negative momentum they have can they pick up enough points or will they be the ones that looked unlikely to be relegated 6 games back that fall through the trap door?

 

I think 10 points will be enough to keep us up.  Three wins and a draw from our last ten games looks doable if we play like we have in our last three games.  The momentum is with us and with Warnock at the helm you know we will be fighting for every single point.  There will be some downs as well as ups so we have to keep our nerve but I predict by the time Hull comes around we will be OK.

 

 



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It's simple we have to concentrate on what we do we have no influence over anyone else's results , way I see it Niel's put his mark on the team and its working wonders but lets not get carried away we are forced to have a few more dips before end of season , but must say init brill at the moment . One massive question these are same player's that Evans and Redfern had Warnock must have found a majic wand .

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Warnock will keep us up

I reckon 10 points minimum is about right, and with a fully fit squad now, as long as green doesn't play again though, we will be fine.

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I thought 10 points on the proviso we dont lose at Brizzle & Franchise. May be a early 50s total this year which just shows how tough this league is. I'll be flabbergasted if we stay up after all that's gone one, and if we do stay NW will go into folklore far eclipsing SE's 'achievement'

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ian
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First thing as always to say is that there are no easy games.

Im just as concerned about a mid table team as either end of of the league. Last season was a good reminder that nothing can be taken for granted.

The games against fellow relegation teams are very crucial. we saw what losing to Charlton and Bolton did to us. They are really games not to lose. If one thinks where 6 points at the end of the season can take us and given there is no buffer of games to recover one can see the importance of those games.

looking at your list;

Fulham have 4 games against those below them; Bristol city 3 , MK Dons 2 and RUFC 2. From that point of view Bristol have a slight edge as 2 are at home and possible results puts it in their hands.

Away at Hull City on the last day I do not fancy at all!!!

All in All though its a fairly even looking last 10 games.

10 Points you say! That makes 45 in total to stay up.

I tend to always overestimate so I purposely tried to underestimate it this season but I think 45 wont be enough to stay up now.

If I accept that 5 teams are in this mini league then for us to stay up Fulham (37) and Bristol city (37) and MK Dons (36) will have to lose 7 of the last 10 ; or 2 wins and 3 draws. It seems a very doable target with 3 teams chasing it. I think its going to be 50!!!

Those 6 pointers will be the key.

Can we get 50? That means 4 more wins from 10! Those extra 2 points and the goal difference Fulham have should see them safe. Given they also play Bristol and MK Dons I hope they get results at both. We are going to have to get results at both MK Dons and Bristol to stay up.

Its going to be tight as. And my concern is we could run out of games V Hull on the last day.

Thankfully , I am not the manager and his one absolutely stunning quality is a very understated and under the radar way of instilling belief. Given I really naturally dislike both Johnson and Robinson and I think they both have significant flaws in their characters we could out psyche them. Gotta say that Johnson got off to a great start but hes not exactly someone that instantly one warms to. I know that Robinson is highly rated but I cant really see why. Hes also an arrogant one.

anyway, dreams and fantasy apart (I can see us winning the last 10) there surely cant be more than a point in it to the last.








-- Edited by ian on Wednesday 9th of March 2016 12:32:00 PM

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Ex - so technically - win against Brizzle & Fake Dons, i prefer win as opposed to not lose as they will gain a point and make no difference to our plight, so the dilemma is, where is the other win then if we take it as a given that we will win against MK and Brizzle.

I say Derby on Saturday, low on confidence, localish derby for them.

I had put on MB previously that March would be a lean month for us, how wrong i was. 6 out of 6, with another 2 matches to go, it would be nice to go through March unbeaten.

That's what i like about following the Millers, we never make it easy for ourselves.

Wish we had NW after SE as we wouldn't be where we are now.





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I think our home games are key. if we win our remaining home games and pick up the odd point or two away we will more than have a chance.

We need to make NYS a fortress. Just like we did last night. We showed to all we have plenty left in the tank. UTM.

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This time last year we had 37 points and were 21st....

 

Great website, you can look at tables of any week

 

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=league_full



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Bristol City seem to have the toughest run in.

Personally I think Fulham have enough about them to stay up, so I would favour them starting on Saturday by beating Brizzle.

I think 48 points should be enough. That means we probably need four wins. Our home form is pretty solid and I would back us to win three out of our five remaining home games. Derby apart (a win on Saturday would be a bonus as far as I am concerned) all our home games are against mid-table also rans, which is exactly who you would want to be playing at this time of the season.

I think we may need at least one away win. Ideally at either MKD or Brizzle (their home form is dreadful) for maximum effect.

Having a look at our rivals' forums, they mostly seem to have us earmarked to survive.

I think we might just do it.




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Myowzer wrote:

This time last year we had 37 points and were 21st....

 

Great website, you can look at tables of any week

 

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=league_full


 ...and then we took 4 points from the next 6 games, and a grand total of 9 points from the last 10 games.

 

Maybe it will be well under 50 this season.

 



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47 keeps us up imho

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46 points I think would put us a whisker out of the bottom 3. I've just had a look at mk and brizz forums who are now running scared of us but they are hoping for 43-45 points for safety. It is and always was going to be close. The thing is unless something changes and you can't see it but it's going to be like this every season until we can't avoid the trap door.

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Think we may need 50+ as Franchise and BC keep pulling results out like we are!

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Isn't it great that we are even having this debate - I'd given up on it 3 weeks ago.. Warnock is our King!!

I'd say forget about 6 pointers and just focus on 5 wins.. in whatever order they come from, the run of 3 on the trot against good teams means we should not look too much at who we are playing and just the numbers.

Obviously the 6 pointer are important, just that 5 wins, probably 4, will be enough and I'm sure that's what NW will be saying.

It would be dreamland if we could go into last two not needing a win, especially as I'll be on hols so won't be able to go to last home game... If we need to beat Blackburn to be safe, and do, it will be another on the pitch job, but as I won't be there to do that, I will be getting very very hammered on my holiday to celebrate (ok, I'll be doing that anyway...)

UTM



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I do not want to be going to Hull looking for a result, we need this done and dusted by the23rd April please Neil.



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looking at recent results I think 51 will keep us up on points

I think we have to aim for 5 more wins and a draw

I think we will take 1 point from next 2 games

Huddersfield
Forest
Blackburn

Are the core winnable games

we will lose one of the BC or Dons games and draw the other

now have 11 points

so need to smuggle two wins from the rest (Leeds, Wolves, Hull)

it will be tight

remember we wasted 19 league games on that clown Redfearn that is nearly half the season


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Derby, you clearly hate Redfearn, but why do you direct all your spite at the manager who had to try and clear up the mess and none at the bloke who made the mess in the first place? They had identical points per game record. Evans got 8 points from 9 games. That would extrapolate to 32 from our 36 played. Solid bottom three form. Evans had a summer to get his own team together whereas Redfearn inherited one. Hate Redfearn if you like, but do you dispute that Evans made a right mess of the pre and early season? Can you also bring yourself to acknowledge that Evans and Redfearn have virtually identical win records with Leeds (all games played in the Championship)? I'm not saying Redfearn was a genius, but it wasn't all his fault was it? Why are you so disrespectful to a man who whatever you think of his management skills had real integrity (unlike others who don't know what the word means)?

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Under no cir***stances can Redfearn be considered on a par with Evans. Redfearn in the dug-out was about as useful as a boiled egg. His team selection was a scrambled egg and his tactics were a yolk.

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Evans - two wins and eight points in nine games. Redfearn - five wins and seventeen points in nineteen games. One with his own team full of his own signings from a clean slate, the other with an inherited team and little chance to change it. Identical career win records in the Championship overall.  The thread is about looking forwards, but if we have to look backwards and throw blame around for this season, Evans has to cop his share of it too. To have a cheap shot at Redfearn - a man who whatever his failings conducted himself with real integrity - and call him a clown and not mention Evans' part in it seemed a bit unbalanced.  I know which one of them I think would look most at home in a clown suit.



-- Edited by smiler on Friday 11th of March 2016 01:42:08 AM

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49 points to keep us in the Championship for next season.

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