With the poor form of the teams just outside the top 6, it would be surprising if the sides currently in the play off places will change that much. The only probable change on current form might be S****horpe dropping out and being replaced by Peterborough. Of those within striking distance - Portsmouth, Charlton, Bristol Rovers and Bradford - none seem capable of putting a sufficiently good run together to mount a challenge. With Shrewsbury slipping up at Northampton last night, I think it's highly likely that they will sacrifice their automatic spot to Wigan and join the play off group. For Rotherham, I don't think there's anyone to fear and I see no reason why we couldn't achieve promotion through the play offs!
There's the technical / tactical decisions to be made for position now. Probably down to the last game of the season now but HOME first or last ? Who do you face first ?
You have to play them all naturally but home last must be an advantage.
I think we're all fit and got options - it's a time when the manager can / does make a difference....so fingers crossed.
Think the debate - closed season will be where / why / when / who & what made the difference to the outcome.
Good problems to have!
-- Edited by Bornamiller on Wednesday 21st of March 2018 10:38:31 AM
Only side I'd be frightened of is Peterbora. Strikers in one off matches win games. They have 2 of the best strikers in league 1. Our strikers aren't strong point of our side.
I have ( mainly for my own sanity) been running a three on the playoff race on the Plymouth site called One Game at a Time.
I started off just analysing momentum and fixtures as so many teams a re involved it is hard to get a clear picture.
Your run until your recent temporary stumble was so good I had you comfortably Play off Bound, and I think that is still the case.
S****horpe seem to have hit the Bradford City wall and I think if we can win at Charlton Saturday we will overhaul them....and much as I would like the football gods to reward Bristol rovers for their appalling luck last week when they could and probably should have taken at least a point from us, I suspect Peterborough will scare a win ( actually I think they will probably romp home)
I just wondered what you felt about your run in....apart form Southend this weekend most of your opponents still have something to play for, and Fleetwood with Sheridan will be annoyingly hard to beat because he is good at making teams difficult to defeat ( or watch)
Obviously we will want you to beat Peterborough unless you have stumbled again in which case with you still to play at HP you could become catchable. Reality is a draw for you v Peterborough would suit us just as well as long as we win.
Our banana skin game will be Pompey at home....if they have nothing to play for ( and here is hoping) it should be Ok...if they are clinging on they owe us for the play off semi final.
I'd like to be coming into the last week with just needing a point from home to you guys to keep things on track....our last two games are Rochdale and Gillingham away and we have decent records at both grounds so would expect us to get 4 or six points from those.
It is all if buts and maybes but assuming you make it into the play offs who else do you think will be there and who would you want to play
I think it is going to be Shrewsbury, Rotherham Argyle and Peterborough ......so hopefully we can avoid each other in the semis and play at Wembley...
pafcprogs - good to see it's not just us doing the arithmetic! I've said on another thread that it's highly likely that Rotherham will play Plymouth in the first round of the play offs. Us finishing 4th and you 5th. As a result I've put my plans on hold to visit Plymouth for the League game, anticipating that I'll be there a couple of weeks later for the play off semi! Shrewsbury v Peterborough is the most likely other tie. As far as our run-in is concerned, I'd rather be playing teams with something to play for - which means there's a chance they will come to play football rather than giving us no time on the ball and trying to shut up shop.
I've got some good memories of Home Park - Umbrella Vi and watching Man Utd beat St Etienne in the 1977 European Cup Winners Cup along with 31,000 others! Hopefully, I can add another good memory this year!
I wouldn't want to play Blackburn or Wigan in the playoffs. They are the strongest two teams in the division by a margin. You have to admire Shrewsbury for how they have stuck in there, but our form over a fairly long period is better than theirs. Despite their supporters thinking that they play like Brazil, they actually don't score very many goals and have won plenty of games by the odd (often late) goal, and their goal difference is only one better than ours. Credit to them , but I suspect they will finish third and I wouldn't be afraid to play them. Having said that, I am keen that we finish 4th or 5th. I fancy us to beat any of the rest over two legs, and save Shrewsbury for Wembley for a repeat of the Auto Windscreens final - hopefully with the same outcome.
We'd have taken this problem at the start of the season wouldn't we.
My "I wish that" and "I wish this" is all fine and dandy and my wish list endures....and I think our club would have been further along the football evolutionary trail if certain things had happened.
But they didn't and we are back to square one as a league one club - winning games and getting into the play-off places - but long term planning ?
We don't know what TS has up his sleeve as he has been burnt before with high expectations. He knows now exactly what the next tier entails and he doesn't like losing SO watch this space....will he bottle it again with disastrous implications or has he learned his lessons and is planning a few surprises.
Warnsey is Teflon coated anyway so he's ok whatever happens.
Hand on heart I don't think we have more than one or two players capable of holding down a regular place in a decent Championship side. Ajayi and Rodak (not our player) perhaps have the potential to do it, and Newell has the ability but maybe not the application. I think that's it. If (big if) we go up with the current players we would struggle to stay up. Forty-six games is a lot, and twenty-three of them away. Teams can turn it on for a one-off cup game but a full season is a different matter. If we had serious ambitions to stay up we would need to invest an awful lot of money that we haven't got. My attitude would be to say that we are going to invest what we can but not beyond what we can afford, and give it a good go. But expect that it might be tough and resolve at the the outset that we will stick by the manager come what may, so that if we come back down we come down stronger and better prepared for the next effort. The Burnley/Dyche example is a powerful one.
What I find interesting are the odds being given for making the playoffs. Oddschecker shows most bookies have us at 100 to 1 on. Shrewsbury and Scunni are joint second favourites at 2 to 1 on followed by Peterboro & Plymouth at 5/4. Wigan and Blackburn are longer because they are likely to miss the playoffs by getting into the automatics. Bradford are 10 to 1 although I see that Nicky Law has been saying its not over yet, but then accuracy was never his strong point