After watching Bristol City tear us apart on Saturday I wondered how good they really were and how bad we were. My brother and nephew are Wednesday fans so as my nephew was working I went to watch the game.
Bristol City were easily the best side in the first half and went into the break with a deserved 2 - 0 lead.
After the break, their tactics changed entirely. They chose to do exactly what the millers did to them and try and protect the 2 nil lead with 8 men sat at the back, inviting the owls to try and penetrate their defence.
Lo and behold - after conceding a goal and missing a penalty the rest of the match was 10 v 10. The owls deservedly won the game in the end.
In summary, we aren't as bad as I feared, the two teams playing yesterday were both good sides but nothing I would be too scared about, but my conclusion is that if you try to protect a 2 nil lead in this division you are a fool. Alan Stubbs was annoying for opting to do it but the Bristol City manager is a numpty. He actually saw that this method doesn't work on Saturday and then employed the exact method that failed Rotherham.
Bring on Forest. I have a feeling it will be a draw but am leaning towards optimism.
I reckon most average football fans recognise that Rotherham's lead protection method is utterly flawed. However, there seems to be some belief amongst the football intelligensia that these tactics are correct. I don't know if AS is part of this intelligensia and is determined to persevere until he's proved right? I hope not. I hope he will rely on his football instincts, learn from what he has seen at NYS so far this season, and go out tonight with a view to attacking from the off and defending from the halfway line. Only then will we see how good our new recruits really are.
I reckon most average football fans recognise that Rotherham's lead protection method is utterly flawed. However, there seems to be some belief amongst the football intelligensia that these tactics are correct. I don't know if AS is part of this intelligensia and is determined to persevere until he's proved right? I hope not. I hope he will rely on his football instincts, learn from what he has seen at NYS so far this season, and go out tonight with a view to attacking from the off and defending from the halfway line. Only then will we see how good our new recruits really are.
as before Glenn, I think its been that way since the downturn of the 70s in English football.
There has been a creeping utilitarian approach that we decided to adopt, thinking this would make us world champions. I think its simply been a lack of real leadership and creativity in our nation thats lead to the current domination of the game by negative tactics shrouded in intellectualism and over analysis. The other school of thought doesnt pander to the control of the game that breed the likes of Wenger and Pepe, and Jose.
It looks evidence based but one simply forgets all the anomalies like resources and history and enjoyment.
It creates a whole cult of the thinking man and increases the belief in special knowledge that they can protect with coaching temples and ritualistic symbols of authority and knowledge.
Its obviously got a lot to do with tactics and formation as well as the team itself, Colin managed to protect 1-0 leads remarkably well, he also could force a result when coming from behind.
I hope Im wrong but I think Stubbs will stick to his beliefs and we have dour football from now on
I don't recall Warnock defending so deep though? His midfield and defence were like a military formation which rarely let an attacker come within shooting distance unchallenged or, as happened constantly against Bristol, stood on the edge of the D with no defender close enough to stop him selecting a pass into the penalty area. If our defence stepped forward 15 yards, I think we'd see a totally different performance with hopefully better results.
placing ball and mawdy bum where he did was some of the issue on saturday.
Thats half of our midfield that has no pace and the other half have limited ability to win the ball and more importantly carry it forward. Its that huge gap again between the top 1-2 and everyone else.
We had about 25% of possession on Saturday and got a draw. Burton had 30% away from home last night and also got a draw. Barnsley had 40% and won 4-0 at Wolves. Preston had 40% possession at home and won 3-0. Newcastle won 6-0 at QPR and shared possession 50/50. Looking back at last season, we had 35% possession away at MK Dons and we know what happened there.
What does this tell us? Possession of the football isn't everything. What counts is what you do with the ball when you have it and as importantly how well you defend when you don't. Barnsley thumped us in the last half hour of what until then had been a pretty even contest because they got the first goal, then a freak second and then sucked us in and got two more late goals on the counter. The pattern of their win at Wolves was almost identical down to the times of the goals. We thumped MK Dons because we scored very early and then sucked the life out of them. For all the possession and shots that Bristol City had, if Danny Ward makes it 3-0 we might run out 4-0 or 5-0 winners like we did against Bolton last year - another example of the same pattern.
In summary, it is quite legitimate to have a game plan that involves defending well, trying to get the first goal and then hitting on the counter. It isn't the only way to play, but it is one way to play and it can work. It is pretty much how Warnock set us up too. Leicester last season are the best example of all. Very many times the other side had the lions share of the ball but Leicester defended in a determined, resilient way and struck on the counter superbly. Iceland the same in the euros.
The thing that has gone wrong for us so far this year is that away from home we haven't been able to get a lead, and at home we have defended too deep and conceded too much territory and not defended well enough. Warnock did a better job of it than Stubbs has done so far. He also rode his luck at times. I have never seen a side be as dominant as Middlesborough were for example yet lose, but they couldn't put the ball in the net. A bit like Brentford recently.
Before I get labelled as a Stubbs apologist, I am not saying that I am happy to have 25% possession especially at home (that is way too low in any context), I am not even saying that it is the way I necessarily want us to play. I am just saying that we have played like that before to good effect, other teams do it, just a bit better than we do, and it can work.
We had about 25% of possession on Saturday and got a draw. Burton had 30% away from home last night and also got a draw. Barnsley had 40% and won 4-0 at Wolves. Preston had 40% possession at home and won 3-0. Newcastle won 6-0 at QPR and shared possession 50/50. Looking back at last season, we had 35% possession away at MK Dons and we know what happened there.
What does this tell us? Possession of the football isn't everything. What counts is what you do with the ball when you have it and as importantly how well you defend when you don't. Barnsley thumped us in the last half hour of what until then had been a pretty even contest because they got the first goal, then a freak second and then sucked us in and got two more late goals on the counter. The pattern of their win at Wolves was almost identical down to the times of the goals. We thumped MK Dons because we scored very early and then sucked the life out of them. For all the possession and shots that Bristol City had, if Danny Ward makes it 3-0 we might run out 4-0 or 5-0 winners like we did against Bolton last year - another example of the same pattern.
In summary, it is quite legitimate to have a game plan that involves defending well, trying to get the first goal and then hitting on the counter. It isn't the only way to play, but it is one way to play and it can work. It is pretty much how Warnock set us up too. Leicester last season are the best example of all. Very many times the other side had the lions share of the ball but Leicester defended in a determined, resilient way and struck on the counter superbly. Iceland the same in the euros.
The thing that has gone wrong for us so far this year is that away from home we haven't been able to get a lead, and at home we have defended too deep and conceded too much territory and not defended well enough. Warnock did a better job of it than Stubbs has done so far. He also rode his luck at times. I have never seen a side be as dominant as Middlesborough were for example yet lose, but they couldn't put the ball in the net. A bit like Brentford recently.
Before I get labelled as a Stubbs apologist, I am not saying that I am happy to have 25% possession especially at home (that is way too low in any context), I am not even saying that it is the way I necessarily want us to play. I am just saying that we have played like that before to good effect, other teams do it, just a bit better than we do, and it can work.
Smiler - what you say is spot on but!! The difference between us and successful counter attacking sides is that when defending, those teams do not allow the opposition total freedom to shoot or hold the ball just outside the penalty area waiting for a passing opportunity to develop. We simply must put the opposition under more pressure before they get sight of goal. Additionally, counter attacking from so deep is much more difficult than winning the ball nearer to the halfway line. I don't think this calls for a major change in tactics , just a small adjustment in AS's game plan. If it works, I don't mind him claiming it as his own idea!
Agree with your point Smiler, but none of these teams conceded 35 attempts at goal, conceding possession on the half way line isnt the end of the world, but when its around the 18 yard box you're in trouble
Thanks all for the replies. I agree with you that we have dropped too deep and allowed the other teams too much easy cheap possession in dangerous areas and consequently too many attempts on our goal. We need to defend much better and much smarter. I don't have any problem with the criticism that we haven't been good enough so far. We haven't. I hope we can get better and always think we can and will. Whenever match day comes I always predict a millers win and today is no exception. Maybe it's blind optimism but it keeps me going back.
