ian wrote:

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What is the nature of the bet nez? I'm not a betting man.

Exeter got 4 correct scores on the prediction league last week from 11.

-- Edited by ian on Monday 12th of October 2015 02:30:26 AM

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 Ian, a Lucky 15 consists of 15 bets made up of ...

4 singles - 6 doubles - 4 trebles - and one ac***ulator

It's usually a bet used on horse racing or dog racing etc, but I like to try and predict the correct scores on four football matches of my choice (providing they're featured on that weeks shop coupons).

The best thing about a Lucky 15 bet is that if you only get one winner, you'll still get something back, and depending on the bookmaker you're using or what you're betting on, they'll give you double, treble or sometimes four times the odds on your one winner!

On a football correct score bet you'll only receive double the odds (at Fred Done's or BetFred as it's commonly known)

Good luck with your selections Ian, and hey you're currently top of the prediction league so you must know summat about predicting the outcome of football matches!

Who knows, this time next year you could be a millionaire!  

It's interesting. It seems simple. When we just lose or even get nothing right we tend to think we have just missed out. Yet, often , that last piece of the jigsaw represents significant increase in odds. It's like the old adage of lightening striking twice.

In my game it's called cognitive bias and I believe the idea of the Gamblers fallacy covers it in other parlance.

Taking the wave theory from physics we can see that it's easy enough to think you can.predict an outcome of something. However, as soon as you put your bet on the dynamic has changed . Odd but true.

Of course, we can know something about limited interaction phenomenon like a game between two where the properties of the two can be seen. However, it's still very limited by the constant change in all the variables. So, although it's a natural reaction to be a little obsessed by bad fortune it's actually the fact you got 3 right that should be the focus of celebration because The odds of getting a fourth would be huge in comparison.

Taking Exeters case and of course , you nez, were great last yr on the prediction league, but It will take a lot more predictions to get 4 again( in the case of Exeter ). Many on the prediction league get 1-2 , rarely anyone gets 3 and I think 4 has happend once in about 250 attempts. How much it takes another 500 attempts before we get another 4? Truth is, it might never happen again in a billion years because it's actual nature is random. 

Playing the percentages will keep you ahead of most of the pack but it won't increase the chances of a jackpot.

Am I right?

NeztheMiller wrote:

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Yesterday I had my usual football bets where I have a couple of correct score lucky 15's and a couple of lines consisting of 5 or 6 teams.

I usually have the same scores that I've predicted on either Millers Banter or in this case MillersMAD.

On one of my lucky 15's I only managed to get one correct score right which was Mansfield 3 Newport 0 @ 10/1

 

But on the other lucky 15 I had the following ...

 

Bury .. 2 .. Wigan .. 2 = correct @ 14/1

Sheff Utd .. 3 .. Rochdale .. 2 = correct @ 25/1

Cambridge .. 1 .. Portsmouth .. 3 = correct @ 18/1

Yeovil .. 2 .. Dagenham .. 3 = wrong, the score was 2-2!  

 

I collected one thousand, seven hundred and twenty seven pounds, but I'm still feeling depressed ... why? .. because if Dagenham had scored another goal, I would have collected fifty one thousand, three hundred and twenty one pounds, 38 pence!     SO BLOODY CLOSE, and reading the report on the game, Dagenham had the last effort in the last minute with a shot that whistled just wide of the post! .... Bu gg er! Bu gg er! Bu gg er!

 

Will I ever get that close again?  

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 Back in the 70s I had something very similar.  Won £1536 (which was nearly a years wages and paid for deposit on house) on Ladbrokes footie correct scores.  Sheff Utd V Arsenal let me down for £63,000.  I had them for 1:1 but Arsenal won 0:6.  Not that close I suppose.  Hated the Blades ever since.

ridgeway kid wrote:

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NeztheMiller wrote:

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Yesterday I had my usual football bets where I have a couple of correct score lucky 15's and a couple of lines consisting of 5 or 6 teams.

I usually have the same scores that I've predicted on either Millers Banter or in this case MillersMAD.

On one of my lucky 15's I only managed to get one correct score right which was Mansfield 3 Newport 0 @ 10/1

 

But on the other lucky 15 I had the following ...

 

Bury .. 2 .. Wigan .. 2 = correct @ 14/1

Sheff Utd .. 3 .. Rochdale .. 2 = correct @ 25/1

Cambridge .. 1 .. Portsmouth .. 3 = correct @ 18/1

Yeovil .. 2 .. Dagenham .. 3 = wrong, the score was 2-2!  

 

I collected one thousand, seven hundred and twenty seven pounds, but I'm still feeling depressed ... why? .. because if Dagenham had scored another goal, I would have collected fifty one thousand, three hundred and twenty one pounds, 38 pence!     SO BLOODY CLOSE, and reading the report on the game, Dagenham had the last effort in the last minute with a shot that whistled just wide of the post! .... Bu gg er! Bu gg er! Bu gg er!

 

Will I ever get that close again?  

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 Back in the 70s I had something very similar.  Won £1536 (which was nearly a years wages and paid for deposit on house) on Ladbrokes footie correct scores.  Sheff Utd V Arsenal let me down for £63,000.  I had them for 1:1 but Arsenal won 0:6.  Not that close I suppose.  Hated the Blades ever since.

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 Ridgeway, I think you've got your potential winnings a bit out there my friend!

A 1-1 correct score for any game irrespective of who's playing is very rarely any more than 7/1, so the amount that you would've won if the Blades had drawn with the Gunners wouldn't have been anywhere near your 63 thousand mark, more likely to have been around the 14 thousand mark (depending on your other scores) !  

NeztheMiller wrote:

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ridgeway kid wrote:

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NeztheMiller wrote:

---

 

Yesterday I had my usual football bets where I have a couple of correct score lucky 15's and a couple of lines consisting of 5 or 6 teams.

I usually have the same scores that I've predicted on either Millers Banter or in this case MillersMAD.

On one of my lucky 15's I only managed to get one correct score right which was Mansfield 3 Newport 0 @ 10/1

 

But on the other lucky 15 I had the following ...

 

Bury .. 2 .. Wigan .. 2 = correct @ 14/1

Sheff Utd .. 3 .. Rochdale .. 2 = correct @ 25/1

Cambridge .. 1 .. Portsmouth .. 3 = correct @ 18/1

Yeovil .. 2 .. Dagenham .. 3 = wrong, the score was 2-2!  

 

I collected one thousand, seven hundred and twenty seven pounds, but I'm still feeling depressed ... why? .. because if Dagenham had scored another goal, I would have collected fifty one thousand, three hundred and twenty one pounds, 38 pence!     SO BLOODY CLOSE, and reading the report on the game, Dagenham had the last effort in the last minute with a shot that whistled just wide of the post! .... Bu gg er! Bu gg er! Bu gg er!

 

Will I ever get that close again?  

---

 Back in the 70s I had something very similar.  Won £1536 (which was nearly a years wages and paid for deposit on house) on Ladbrokes footie correct scores.  Sheff Utd V Arsenal let me down for £63,000.  I had them for 1:1 but Arsenal won 0:6.  Not that close I suppose.  Hated the Blades ever since.

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 Ridgeway, I think you've got your potential winnings a bit out there my friend!

 

A 1-1 correct score for any game irrespective of who's playing is very rarely any more than 7/1, so the amount that you would've won if the Blades had drawn with the Gunners wouldn't have been anywhere near your 63 thousand mark, more likely to have been around the 14 thousand mark (depending on your other scores) !  

-- Edited by NeztheMiller on Thursday 15th of October 2015 03:37:15 AM

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 No, Nez.  You're right of course BUT at that time Ladbroke's offered guaranteed minimum fixed odds for correct scores.  For all five correct it was a minimum of 1536-1.  For six it was 63,000-1. I bet £1 on five each week and occasionally had another £1 on six if I fancied six games.  Don't ask me how they worked the odds out but I've still got a copy of the winning ticket somewhere.

Nez, now I'm more confused; it was I think 1977 after all.  I have asked my cousin who placed the bet for me (and to whom I gave the £38 cash - Ladbrokes for some reason gave me a cheque for £1500 and the rest in notes) and he remembers it as five BUT differs from me in two regards.  Firstly, he reckons it was NOT correct scores but rather SCORE DRAWS that you had to predict (he may be right as certainly all the predictions I remember were for score draws).  Secondly - and I'm sure he's right here - he says that the missed £63,000 was a week or two after the £1500 win.  This makes sense as I probably got greedy after winning and moved from 5 to 6 predictions.  So there you go.  I did (do?) have a photocopy of the cheque which I used to pull out in the boozer until people started to get understandably shirty.